2009 Kentucky Derby preview
Posted by Billy at 5/1/2009 3:57 PM 
Categories: The Triple Crown
Tags: Friesan Fire Mr. Hot Stuff Handicapping Thoroughbred Churchill Downs Kentucky Derby Kentucky Oaks Horse Racing Chocolate Candy
Categories: The Triple Crown
Tags: Friesan Fire Mr. Hot Stuff Handicapping Thoroughbred Churchill Downs Kentucky Derby Kentucky Oaks Horse Racing Chocolate Candy
Hmmm - my Oaks Day is turning out with several winners - but not a lot of ticket cashing. So I'm on - I'm just not exact - yet. Maybe the racing gods are waiting for Saturday for me. I probably won't put my picks for tomorrow's card up - jinxed me.
I used to send out an email with all my picks and comments and such and it was a little bitter and crude and often biting. I'll probably remain that way today for this entry. Well biting anyway. I just try not to fall into the same personality as most blogs out there - hateful, cranky, bitchy. Not sure how this will turn out!
It will probably have some strong opinions.
Below are the entries for the Kentucky Derby - in post position order. Along with my thoughts on the horse and or connections and their chances. At the end of each horses comments will be my thoughts on where he will finish.
1. West Side Bernie: Everyone is picking him as their Longshot horse. Really? He's by Bernstein out of a Gilded Time mare. He's really inconsistent to me. I just don't see what people are excited about. I don't see this pedigree getting there. I don't see this horse getting there either. I could be wrong - but I don't think so. 10th
2. Musket Man: What an awesome run these people have had with this colt. 5 wins in 6 starts. He's quality but he's not Derby quality. The owner also jinxed him by saying "when we win the 1 1/4 miles tomorrow" while being interviewed on TVG. That ruined it. 11th
3. Mr. Hot Stuff: He's gorgeous - believe me. I think he'll close well and probably end up 4th or so. I like him and including him in my exotics, but don't think he's quite ready to win it. 4th.
4. Advice: I don't know why he's running. I know he won the Lexington S.-G2 but I don't understand why they would put him in the Derby. He won't want to do this length of race. 16th
5. Hold Me Back: He has a nice record - on the board in 4 of 5 starts but the one start that he was off the board was when he ran on dirt. I think he's top quality on All-weather or Turf - I think he can probably go 1 1/4 miles easy - but he won't want to tomorrow on whatever that track will be. Arlington's Secretariat S.-G1 this Summer would be best. 14th
6. Friesan Fire: I don't care if it's wet or dry he'll run big I think. He improves so much each race. I think he's the actual one to beat. Everyone was all about him until they didn't run him after the Louisiana Derby. I think he's classy enough to do it off the layoff in March. 2nd
7. Papa Clem: He keeps improving - especially if you believe in speed figures, especially if you prefer Beyer's. However I think he's a touch below the G1 quality. He gets beat by the G1 horses. 13th
8. Mine That Bird: Now you know I have a special connection to this guy and that's important to me. I also wouldn't bet him if he had NO chance. I've heard from several "experts" that think he shouldn't be here. There are always plenty of those. Ignore those NM races because he got bad rides! BAD. He has Calvin Borel who knows how to ride a closer/stalker at Churchill Downs. A son of Birdstone out of a Smart Strike mare? Love it - will run all day - will run on anything and is my tasty longshot - for so many reasons. By the way - he's the only champion in this field. 3rd
9. Join in the Dance: he's there to set the pace - that's it and thankfully so because there is no pace and I like closers this year. 20th
10: Regal Ransom: More than likely another pace factor - however he's a cut above JitD. If there is a downpour - don't be shocked for Godolphin to finally get a win with him. 8th
11. Chocolate Candy: Yummy yummy. The winner. His family includes Affirmed (my favorite) and not just somewhere but Affirmed is a half-brother to his 2nd dam. He's stunning. He's gonna love the dirt! He's gonna love the slop. I'm gonna love him. 1st
12. General Quarters: Awesome story. The trainer/owner is the coolest guy yet if you ask me in the long list of annual Derby/older guy with one horse type stories. I'd love to see him win - not tomorrow though. I don't honestly think he can. 7th
13. I Want Revenge: He's supposed to be the favorite - but already he's not. More than likely that will change later but who knows. His connections make you not want to cheer for him - much like I wouldn't cheer for Big Brown last year. I just am turned off by the group - different trainer - same affect. So I don't want revenge - I want Justice. 12th
14. Atomic Rain: Considering that he was part of the beaten group (West Side Bernie and Just a Coincidence) behind I Want Revenge - and the fact that all 3 aren't really high quality - I think they drop I Want Revenge's level. This horse doesn't really belong. 17th
15. Dunkirk: hmmm, the unknown. He's a looker and should be with his $3.7 million price as a yearling. However I think since he's only had 3 starts that he may be up against it. Each race improves by leaps and bounds but I don't know - I'm not feeling it. Am I wrong? 6th
16. Pioneerof the Nile: he's the talk of the West Coast. I think he should be the real favorite and I think it's his race to lose. I was NOT impressed with him visually yesterday when I saw him. So I don't plan on using him in MY exotics. I just didn't like him in person. I was actually kind of shocked by his appearance. 9th
17. Summer Bird: another with only 3 races and he shouldn't be here at all. AT ALL. 15th
18. Nowhere to Hide: yet another that's basically to me "we want a horse in the Derby" type entry. Shouldn't be here. 19th
19. Desert Party: I think he's really the best option Godolphin has ever brought to the table. His one bad G1 dirt performance can't be trusted because he stumbled and was pinched back at the break. But it's hard to judge a horse like this. I'm including him - I think he could surprise all the naysayers. 5th
20. Flying Private: He runs about as good as me. If I was 3 I guess I could be in? 18th
I used to send out an email with all my picks and comments and such and it was a little bitter and crude and often biting. I'll probably remain that way today for this entry. Well biting anyway. I just try not to fall into the same personality as most blogs out there - hateful, cranky, bitchy. Not sure how this will turn out!
It will probably have some strong opinions.
Below are the entries for the Kentucky Derby - in post position order. Along with my thoughts on the horse and or connections and their chances. At the end of each horses comments will be my thoughts on where he will finish.
1. West Side Bernie: Everyone is picking him as their Longshot horse. Really? He's by Bernstein out of a Gilded Time mare. He's really inconsistent to me. I just don't see what people are excited about. I don't see this pedigree getting there. I don't see this horse getting there either. I could be wrong - but I don't think so. 10th
2. Musket Man: What an awesome run these people have had with this colt. 5 wins in 6 starts. He's quality but he's not Derby quality. The owner also jinxed him by saying "when we win the 1 1/4 miles tomorrow" while being interviewed on TVG. That ruined it. 11th
3. Mr. Hot Stuff: He's gorgeous - believe me. I think he'll close well and probably end up 4th or so. I like him and including him in my exotics, but don't think he's quite ready to win it. 4th.
4. Advice: I don't know why he's running. I know he won the Lexington S.-G2 but I don't understand why they would put him in the Derby. He won't want to do this length of race. 16th
5. Hold Me Back: He has a nice record - on the board in 4 of 5 starts but the one start that he was off the board was when he ran on dirt. I think he's top quality on All-weather or Turf - I think he can probably go 1 1/4 miles easy - but he won't want to tomorrow on whatever that track will be. Arlington's Secretariat S.-G1 this Summer would be best. 14th
6. Friesan Fire: I don't care if it's wet or dry he'll run big I think. He improves so much each race. I think he's the actual one to beat. Everyone was all about him until they didn't run him after the Louisiana Derby. I think he's classy enough to do it off the layoff in March. 2nd
7. Papa Clem: He keeps improving - especially if you believe in speed figures, especially if you prefer Beyer's. However I think he's a touch below the G1 quality. He gets beat by the G1 horses. 13th
8. Mine That Bird: Now you know I have a special connection to this guy and that's important to me. I also wouldn't bet him if he had NO chance. I've heard from several "experts" that think he shouldn't be here. There are always plenty of those. Ignore those NM races because he got bad rides! BAD. He has Calvin Borel who knows how to ride a closer/stalker at Churchill Downs. A son of Birdstone out of a Smart Strike mare? Love it - will run all day - will run on anything and is my tasty longshot - for so many reasons. By the way - he's the only champion in this field. 3rd
9. Join in the Dance: he's there to set the pace - that's it and thankfully so because there is no pace and I like closers this year. 20th
10: Regal Ransom: More than likely another pace factor - however he's a cut above JitD. If there is a downpour - don't be shocked for Godolphin to finally get a win with him. 8th
11. Chocolate Candy: Yummy yummy. The winner. His family includes Affirmed (my favorite) and not just somewhere but Affirmed is a half-brother to his 2nd dam. He's stunning. He's gonna love the dirt! He's gonna love the slop. I'm gonna love him. 1st
12. General Quarters: Awesome story. The trainer/owner is the coolest guy yet if you ask me in the long list of annual Derby/older guy with one horse type stories. I'd love to see him win - not tomorrow though. I don't honestly think he can. 7th
13. I Want Revenge: He's supposed to be the favorite - but already he's not. More than likely that will change later but who knows. His connections make you not want to cheer for him - much like I wouldn't cheer for Big Brown last year. I just am turned off by the group - different trainer - same affect. So I don't want revenge - I want Justice. 12th
14. Atomic Rain: Considering that he was part of the beaten group (West Side Bernie and Just a Coincidence) behind I Want Revenge - and the fact that all 3 aren't really high quality - I think they drop I Want Revenge's level. This horse doesn't really belong. 17th
15. Dunkirk: hmmm, the unknown. He's a looker and should be with his $3.7 million price as a yearling. However I think since he's only had 3 starts that he may be up against it. Each race improves by leaps and bounds but I don't know - I'm not feeling it. Am I wrong? 6th
16. Pioneerof the Nile: he's the talk of the West Coast. I think he should be the real favorite and I think it's his race to lose. I was NOT impressed with him visually yesterday when I saw him. So I don't plan on using him in MY exotics. I just didn't like him in person. I was actually kind of shocked by his appearance. 9th
17. Summer Bird: another with only 3 races and he shouldn't be here at all. AT ALL. 15th
18. Nowhere to Hide: yet another that's basically to me "we want a horse in the Derby" type entry. Shouldn't be here. 19th
19. Desert Party: I think he's really the best option Godolphin has ever brought to the table. His one bad G1 dirt performance can't be trusted because he stumbled and was pinched back at the break. But it's hard to judge a horse like this. I'm including him - I think he could surprise all the naysayers. 5th
20. Flying Private: He runs about as good as me. If I was 3 I guess I could be in? 18th
My picks that day were Friesan Fire, Dunkirk and Pioneerof The Nile.
I had doubted Fire's mental attitude to be a racehorse, and his success in LA only, but backed him when the masses did- also wanted Larry Jones to win so badly. Dunkirk I backed to rebut the Breeding Police Nazis (not you racetrackers, just the PETA variety) about Unbridled's Song and because I like to see expensive horses do well. Pioneer I backed for consistentcy and his continued presence on the Triple Crown trail (plus Baffert trained, Baffert hated by many, so I back him up)
I knew the field well, still when Mine That Bird passed all others like they were standing still, all I could do was ask myself "Who was that?"
I will always remember this Derby.
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