2011 Kentucky Derby Selections –

It has been a really long time since I didn’t have a huge thought for any horse in the Derby Field. Every fall I start sifting through 2yos so that I can start connecting with a horse for the next spring’s Derby. I have not felt so unexcited about a 3yo crop in a very long time.

A field of horses that have yet to do more than win at an average of 32%, only 5 are Grade 1 winners, just 14 are Graded Stakes winners, 3 have only had a single win (Master of Hounds, Nehro, Santiva). Now if I were in the mood – I’d research each of the last 10 years to see how they compare. But I don’t wanna. I don’t want to be a negative bitch and complain about this being a weak field – because overall it’s not like we’re missing some major impressive star. The horses OFF the trail are no more outstanding. Just seems to be a very equal crop with no standout. Dialed In becomes the morning line favorite if only because he’s done the least wrong and he is 1 of the 5 Grade 1 stakes winners.

So we end up with a great handicapping race. The people that don’t actually know what they are looking at will always go for the most popular story, the most popular winner. But there is nothing that allows any to be MOST popular. A lot of women who don’t pay attention will automatically go for Pants On Fire because he’ll have a female jockey or Mucho Macho Man and Watch Me Go because of the female trainers angle. People that prefer to hate on US racing will cheer on Master of Hounds because he’s based in Ireland (though he’s Kentucky bred). The rest of the “fans” will pick names or numbers, trainers or jockeys. For the record – ALL of those choices are just fine. It’s the Derby. There are 19 to choose from and whatever gives you chills and excitement. I’d rather you want a horse to win and jump up and down while it races than NOT.

I spent the better part of Wed-Friday handicapping the Derby and a couple of other races. Disallowed myself to bet every race on Oaks and Derby day as usual mostly because I have not had the time to invest in really handicapping that many races. When you work for yourself – doing pedigree research, raise dogs to show, show dogs, assist professional handlers at shows, work on private sales for clients – there isn’t much extra time anymore. So I focus on the races I care most about.

In today’s Kentucky Oaks – I picked Joyful Victory (1), Zazu (6), Daisy Devine (9), Holy Heavens (11) and Plum Pretty (12). – By the time I wrap up this entry – we’ll know the result of that. I didn’t like the looks of Kathmanblu when I saw her at Churchill so just couldn’t include her.

Below is a list of your Derby contenders with my comments – both serious and smart ass. I’ll also include at the bottom – my picks and what I would bet. If you so desire to bet like me – good luck. If we lose – I didn’t put a gun to your head.

1. Archarcharch, by the sire of should be Horse of the Year – Blame. Of all the horses I watched Thursday a.m. at Churchill Downs he was the most impressive. As I told several people – he was the only horse I didn’t hear as he moved around the track. My top pick btw. 1st
2. Brilliant Speed, same sire as Barbaro (for you frickin’ obsessive weirdos that live for dead horses). Won the Blue Grass S.-G1 but that means little since they switched from real to pretend surfaces. He is a big clunky looking horse in my opinion. Don’t believe he’ll impact the finish. He has the pedigree – just doesn’t like the surface. 8th
3. Twice the Appeal, normally I’d be excited about a runner from the Sunland Derby but I don’t think so with a son of Successful Appeal. 18th
4. Stay Thirsty, well bred but that’s about all I can say. His best performance in a G1 was at 7 furlongs. Since then – every time they put him in at that level he gets his ass kicked by double digit lengths. 19th
5. Decisive Moment, the other horse that caught my attention on Thursday. I sort of like his past performances if only because of highest level of consistency. 9 starts – won or placed in 8. That’s hard to accomplish. His record reminds me of Musket Man. Always there. 4th
6. Comma to the Top, 13 starts! I like that in a horse however I don’t think a Bwana Charlie out of a Stormy Atlantic wants anything to do with a 1 ¼ mile race – against other horses anyway. He no likey to win if he doesn’t get the lead – but don’t take that to mean if you see him in front tomorrow – he’ll win. Not at this distance. NICE colt but not thinking he’s Derby bred. 14th
7. Pants on Fire, by a broke down son of A.P. Indy – sorry never loved Jump Start too much after his deadly breakdown. Wouldn’t breed to him – but you go ahead. Nice enough runner but with sire and shitty name combo – I just can’t consider him. You know the first Pants on Fire was a filly. That’s fitting. 12th
8. Dialed In, only 4 starts BUT 3 wins. I take issue with him only have 2 works since the Florida Derby and NO works at Churchill. I didn’t see him yesterday. Interestingly enough. I could probably eat my words but just don’t have the excitement level for him. 7th
9. Derby Kitten. Are you frickin’ kidding me? STUPID NAME!!!!!!!!!! Stupid. He was beaten 27 lengths in his only dirt start. So you think he belongs? This kind of bs – is why I am growing annoyed with the Graded Stakes Earnings process now – with turf and synthetic races included. Because horses like this do NOT want to be on dirt – so please waste a race and waste another horses chances. Stupid. 17th
10. Twinspired, I love me some Harlan’s Holiday! LOVE HIM. This is the 3rd horse out of 3 that caught my attention Thursday. That’s enough for me to include him. 5th
11. Master of Hounds. Super well bred. Ugliest horse I’ve ever seen. Some TV commentator said “don’t let his lack of weight and unhealthy appearance fool you. Ouija Board looked that bad when I saw her before the Breeders’ Cup.” Don’t compare this horse to her. He has ONLY broken his maiden. He’s not won a stakes, he did finish 3rd in a 1 mile Grade 1 in Europe and a close 2nd in the United Arab Emirates which seems to NEVER matter in the Derby outcome. 10th
12. Santiva, bred pretty much for any surface. Is on his 3rd trainer (according to Drf) – only has 1 win and it came in Churchill’s Kentucky Jockey Club. Would have preferred to see 2nd place horse from that race Astrology in here but not the way it worked out. I just don’t feel like he wants to win as much as others want him to do so. Mediocre works at Churchill for Derby week and though he’s pretty – I wasn’t in love on Thursday. 9th
13. Mucho Macho Man, I don’t like to look at him because he ain’t pretty – but in comparison to Master of Dogs – he’s at least conditioned. He’s a big gangly kid. BUT considering he’s never been off the board in 8 starts – I feel he’s the definite one to watch. The last race he 3rd by only ¾ length and had lost a shoe at the start but everyone will be thinking more of Pants on Fire and Nehro – put the shoe back on and rerun it – he’d be the hot topic. 2nd
14. Shackelford, oh I so wanted to include him in my exotics but no dice. I did do a combo with him in via my friend Beth – but on my own. Had to discount his Florida Derby 2nd. I like him – and he’s gorgeous – but can’t bet them all. 11th
15. Midnight Interlude, this is a colt that’s big but NOT gawky. Not going around the track he wasn’t anyway. I think with only 4 starts but improving and his size he can handle the bumping and all that goes on in the Derby. He’s probably primed for a nice run. 3rd
16. Animal Kingdom, really? Again another turf horse. If he was on grass I’d like him a lot! But I just don’t believe there is any reason for him to be here. (please don’t prove me wrong). 16th
17. Soldat, I love this horse and want him to do well. LOVE his sire! Love that he has won on turf, dirt, slop. He’s had 1 race where he wasn’t 2nd or better in 8 starts. Impressive. 6th – unless it rains – then maybe 1st
18. Uncle Mo – scratched and should have never been entered. Ridiculous bullshit. Don’t announce he worked great but his coat and overall health are bad. That just underlines you don’t want to announce his retirement today. VERY unprofessional. So much like the IEAH crew right now. Unimpressed. If the horse runs again – I will be shocked.
19. Nehro, a horse that worries me but once again I can’t play them all. 13th
20. Watch Me Go, he either wins or he doesn’t and looking at his very low speed figures and high lack of consistency I don’t believe he will make much noise on Saturday. 15th

If I were a betting man – I’d single Michelle Nihei and Casa Farm’s Prince Will I Am with Archarcharch, Decisive Moment, Twinspired, Mucho Macho Man, Midnight Interlude, Soldat, with The Program, Firm Resolve, Good Lord, Streakin Mohican with Gentle Tap in the late pick 4.

Good luck to everyone – especially me.

I know that most years there isn’t going to be 20 horses in the Kentucky Derby with more than 1 or 2 graded victories. However usually there are at least 2 standouts that have dominated the Derby prep scene. Not this year. It reminds me of 1982, similar field – and 3 different Triple Crown race winners.

As we get closer to entry day I had a look at the past performances of the top 20 by graded earnings.

Animal Kingdom – 4 starts, 2 wins – both on all-weather surfaces, 1 Grade 3

Archarcharch – 6 starts, 3 wins – all dirt, 1 Grade 1, 1 Grade 3

Brilliant Speed – 8 starts, 2 wins – 1 turf, 1 all-weather, 1 Grade 1

Comma to the Top – 13 starts, 6 wins – 1 turf, 5 all weather, 1 Grade 1, 1 Grade 3

Decisive Moment – 8 starts, 2 wins – both dirt, 1 Listed Stake

Derby Kitten – 9 starts, 2 wins – 1 turf, 1 all-weather, 1 Grade 3

Dialed In – 4 starts, 3 wins – all dirt (1 at Churchill), 1 Grade 1, 1 Grade 3

Master of Hounds – 7 starts, 1 win – on turf at 7 furlongs, no Graded wins

Midnight Interlude – 4 starts, 2 wins – both dirt (1 wet), 1 Grade 1

Mucho Macho Man – 8 starts, 2 wins – both dirt, 1 Grade 2

Nehro – 5 starts, 1 win – on dirt, no Graded wins

Pants on Fire – 8 starts, 2 wins – both dirt (1 sloppy), 1 Grade 2

Santiva – 6 starts, 1 win – at Churchill on dirt, 1 Grade 2

Shackleford – 5 starts, 2 wins – both dirt (1 at Churchill), no Graded wins

Soldat – 8 starts, 3 wins – 2 dirt (1 sloppy), 1 turf, 1 Grade 2, 1 Grade 3

Stay Thirsty – 6 starts, 2 wins – both dirt, 1 Grade 3

Twice the Appeal – 10 starts, 3 wins – all dirt (1 wet), 1 Grade 3

Twinspired – 8 starts, 2 wins – both on all-weather surfaces, 1 Listed Stakes win

Uncle Mo – 5 starts, 4 wins – all dirt, 2 Grade 1

Watch Me Go – 10 starts, 4 wins – all dirt, 1 Grade 2

Once the field actually is drawn – I will compose my thoughts on each horse and give you my picks.

It is beyond amazing to me that the Racing Industry can't figure out how to survive.  Did we not years ago create an organization to help promote at least - Thoroughbred Racing? I've discussed this before but today I read a piece on DRF.com that discussed the Jockey Club securing a firm to basically help figure out what they can do to turn this boat around and I find it maddening. I love when an industry doesn't even know itself.

Take note - the same thing over and over gets old. I still have to explain to people that a day of racing is not like a track meet. That's how great the NTRA and the Jockey Club have done promoting this sport. Everyone knows the premise of a football game, basketball game, NASCAR race, even a frickin' volleyball match. Why don't they know that 1 horse does not run 3 times in a day? Because no one besides people like me - bother to explain anything. So you have a bunch of half-assed Bloggers with opinions or passions or obsessions and a bunch of uneducated fans that fall in love with 1 or 2 horses a year - the only one they've heard of since the last Derby or Filly or Death. Great job!

Here are a few suggestions.

Racetracks: instead of just hoping people will come to watch a horse race that they don't care anything about (in reality) give people reasons to HAVE to show up. You do realize you're not the only game in town right? I mean most places like tracks in states with less than thriving entertainment venues and even less money have adopted the whole gaming idea. The people that go to those tracks to play slots don't care 1 bit about a horse race - but at least they figured out how to get someone to patronize the establishment. Now they have to keep promoting to bring in new people.

Fans: you can do more than just watch for free on TVG or HRTV. If you love the horses so much - make your next vacation to come see what it's all about. Visit Lexington and go to the races - anywhere. Team up with your Facebook friends or Twitter followers and spend a weekend at the track closest to you. You might even bet a little. Take someone with you that has never been. Introducing someone new to your favorite sport - they might just become a fan. This is your responsibility as well.

Breeders: I see the changes already happening. People breeding less because horse aren't worth overbreeding and wasting. Good to notice - a bit late but it's a start. I am seeing that people are no longer supporting unproven stallions like they used to - and that's something that needed changing. Fasig-Tipton dropped their new sire showcase - and for good reason. Maybe it's time to REALLY think about what you're breeding. It shocks me that in the dog show world - that is based on conformation but the dogs should still carry the qualities to do the job they were originally bred for - the quality breeders do health testing on their animals to avoid passing on genetic issues and unsoundness problems. Yet we just breed to hope for a Derby winner or a sales yearling. Sounding more like a better plan needs to develop. You know we had a Bouvier des Flandres bitch that was gorgeous and got her Championship in just 11 days of showing. Great pedigree and temperament. Passed all her health tests (eyes, heart, thyroid and elbows) but did not pass her hip x-rays. So she was spayed - never bred. Would you do that with your mare that broke down? Probably not. Same for your colt that retired unsound - but bred to 100 mares a year.

Maybe it's time to develop an even better racehorse. If you eliminate all the crap (which is hard because most crap is associated with people that are less than intelligent and beyond the ability to see past tomorrow) and make sure you only breed for horses that can do the job - there might be some longevity in the outcome.

Everyone: How about realizing that you support the absolutely wrong politicians? Just because some ass has money and doesn't like to share it doesn't mean he is the right person to run the state, county, city that you live in. I LAUGHED my ass off at the ignorance of the Thoroughbred farm owners that had Rand Paul signs out last year. You can continually vote just for your party - most do - but should you realize who you're supporting. He basically said he could give a shit about the industry - the only industry besides coal that KY has - the only reason Lexington even exists - because UK basketball only pleases the state - not the world. Now our biggest opponent (clearly) David Williams is running for Governor. I wonder how many people that wouldn't survive without this industry will support and vote for him? Are you also so inept that you'll vote for him because he's teamed with UK Untouchable Richie Farmer? That's like me voting for just any politician because he's gay or hot. I ALWAYS educate myself first - try it. You might have a job next year.

Listen to me right now - as you watch the industry sink further - please note that you did it to yourself because it's no one else's fault if you don't REALLY do something.

So here we are – closing in on the last potential money making starts to get into the Kentucky Derby – again. Somehow the insanity makes me think differently about the process. Years ago – and not that many before you accuse me of age issues – you could find your Derby horse early enough and watch it through the 3yo preps in their own state. Now you have added states vying for attention on the Derby scene. As well as the fact that it’s MUCH easier to jump from state to state with your 3yo and run where you can get the money – and not the pressure.

In 2011 there are 49 stakes for 3yos that are listed as Kentucky Derby preps. You and I know that this is heavily ridiculous because of the 6 furlong races not really being preps and btw – I didn’t even include the turf stakes because – well let’s just be realistic. The 2 rarely meet in the Derby.

Arizona: 1 prep, dirt, not graded.
Arkansas: 5 preps, dirt, 3 graded, 1 track  – a progressive series other than 
    the Northern Spur run on Arkansas Derby day.
California: 8 preps, 6 dirt, 2 tapeta, 6 graded, 2 tracks, the 6 Santa Anita races begin 
    to matter again. Also somewhat progressive series with 2 extra races mixed in. Florida: 10 preps, dirt (if you consider Tampa dirt – but it’s not synthetic), 7 graded, 2 
    Tracks. Again – somewhat progressive with sprints mixed in.
Illinois: 1 graded prep on dirt – rarely makes a difference other than giving a horse 
    Graded money to get in and waste my time
Kentucky: 8 preps, 1 prep is on dirt (at Churchill too close to the Derby to really be a 
    prep these days) and the rest are synthetic, 4 graded, 3 tracks. The lack of dirt 
    surface could explain why nothing of excitement is running in the Blue Grass S. 
    at Keeneland this weekend – as well as nothing from Turfway ever has much impact 
    on the outcome of the Kentucky Derby since the switch to synthetic. Once again 
    adds $ to the Graded list but more and more the KY races have little to do with the 
    Derby winner.
Louisiana: 6 preps, dirt, 3 graded, 2 tracks. 2 preps at Delta Downs are rarely on 
    the Derby prep radar. Fair Grounds races are same as above – progressive series.
New Mexico: 2 preps, dirt, 1 graded – both at Sunland Park and surprisingly has 
    impact on the Triple Crown the last 2 years – somewhat.
New York: 8 preps, dirt, 4 graded – though the Jerome (only Belmont prep – the rest 
    are Aqueduct) is more a Preakness prep – but you never know. Somewhat 
    progressive with a couple of non-factor races thrown in.

You have a total of 29 Graded stakes for 3yo colts to earn a chance at the Derby. Yeah I know – they throw in the 2yo money as well and that got my boy Mine that Bird in and slapped everyone’s ass – hard. But considering now that most trainers don’t campaign a horse to get ready to battle the Triple Crown – they just try to get the 1 win or 2^nd in a bigger pursed prep – I’m starting to think it’s time to throw out the 2yo races as consideration for Graded earnings. Why? Because I’m a bitch. No because somewhere you have to teach these trainers that they can’t waste so much time and waste a horse’ career for a single race.

I took the top 30 Graded earners and figured up their 3yo Graded money. The following colts currently in the top 20 drop below the yellow line (Thanks Biggest Loser):

Stay Thirsty ($260,000 lifetime graded; $150,000 2011 graded), Decisive Moment ($301,000; $101,000), Uncle Mo ($1,360,000; $100,000), Santiva ($240,254; $60,000), J P’s Gusto ($541,500; $51,500) and Jaycito ($250,000; $50,000).

Now – to you this may not be that big of a deal but we’re talking about 6 three-year-olds that are heading to Churchill most likely that have had basically less than stellar sophomore campaigns. Did you hear me? I said 6!

I don’t expect horses to ever be up to the level of Secretariat, Affirmed, Spectacular Bid or Seattle Slew. Horses that really campaigned and captured the nation’s attention – even if only for a brief time in our history. I don’t believe most trainers (I said most so shut up cry babies) realize what it takes to get a horse to the Derby and THROUGH the Triple Crown. It’s a different time. I don’t think it’s the horses that can’t handle the pressure physically. I think it’s the people associated with them believe their own hype but have no follow through. I say all this as opinion because I don’t train and before you say anything you probably don’t either.

It clearly takes an outstanding horse and quality team to tackle this feat. Maybe the industry needs to wise up and demand a bit more quality out of their day rates. I mean after all aren’t these horses in our history and our future a long term investment? Do you spend the money and time for just a race or a career that is going to put your name in lights? Think about that.

It's been quite some time since my last blog. I'm slowly getting back into this world.

100 plus years of raising some of the best Thoroughbreds a person could ever dream about – Claiborne Farm is STILL at the top of their game.

For years I have listened to rumor and commentary from people saying that Claiborne Farm was behind the times, out of date and falling by the wayside. That they were too busy doing it the old way – to get caught up with what’s going on now.

I always found it somewhat sacrilegious to attack such a historic establishment. But if you consider that most of the attackers were either people from farms that were jealous that they could never create a Mr. Prospector or Danzig type powerhouse or people that think you have to bandwagon every idea that comes along.

I like the way Claiborne operates – watch the market, see what works, move forward wisely. –

When every farm in the 90’s started trying to compete with the ridiculousness of the original Vinery (not to be confused with today’s operation) that over bred numerous top and mediocre stallions to a bevy of average mares. Those stallions would top the Juvenile sire list only because of the vast number of foals they had racing. Sure lots of winners but not much on quality – and if you looked at percentages – well let’s just say weak. Stallions like Farma Way, Twilight Agenda, and Red Ransom (the only exception) would be at or near the top of the Freshman and Juvenile sires lists then disappear as the next 2 years came and went. Why? Well simply because the numbers would drop off significantly. People would quit breeding to them because they didn’t have anything of note on the track, then also because there were so many of them at the sales – they were a dime a dozen. You couldn’t expect to make any money on your foals at public auction.

Ashford Stud began doing similar and it made it hard for the farms with good intentions to compete. You ended up with stallions breeding well over the traditional 40-60 mares – jumping into the 100+ range. Clearly you end up with a Quarter Horse industry fuck up – where nothing is original, nothing is special. Everyone can get a foal by your stallion because there are too many. Once upon a time a Horse of the Year or 3-year-old champion would only have offspring in the now extinct Keeneland July Sale, Saratoga Yearling Sale and the first 4 days of the Keeneland September Sale. Now those stallions can range through the entire Keeneland Sale of 14 days. Because of the range of mares they get to try and fill a book.

Farms are rarely as selective like in the past. A good mare is clearly accepted and might even get a deal – but your mare that has never produce a winner will also be accepted nowadays. You’ll pay the full stud fee – and when you sell the foal for 1/3^rd the value of that fee – well good luck.

So Claiborne, I noticed, didn’t jump on that big number bandwagon. Of course, they were standing stallions people wanted to breed to for quality. Besides the aforementioned boys at the top they had Seeking the Gold, and up and comers Pulpit and Arch. They took a wait and see approach. Slowly increasing their stallion’s books but never raising them to the level of disgust that others were doing. They were slow about getting their website up – but they did when it was clearly important to the industry and to the farm. They were slow at changing their sales consignments from horses that didn’t work for them – to horses that would really work for others.

Fast forward to right this minute. Have an envious look at this roster:

Arch: sire of what should have been Horse of the Year – Blame, and 3 other Champions. A horse that averages 70% winners from starters – hard to do in this day and age.

Blame: new to the farm this year – 2010 Breeders’ Cup Classic-G1 winner over Zenyatta.

Eddington: sired more first crop winners than any other son of Unbridled (that’s a big deal yo). Currently among the top 10 3^rd Crop sires of 2011.

First Samurai: a top 10 2^nd Crop sire with an impressive son winning the Rushaway S. at TP recently.

Flatter: everyone knows this boy. People are clamoring for his offspring. 8% SWs from Starters. Average earnings per starters over 6 times his fee. Crazy! Full brother to last year’s leading Freshman sire Congrats – which means btw that Claiborne bred and raced Congrats.

Horse Greeley: first foals are yearlings – I suggest people get on board considering where he stands.

Parading: first foals arrive this year! Stud fee is LOVELY! For this pedigree and sire line. Hello – son of Pulpit! Everybody wants one.

Political Force: first crop races this year. I really didn’t care anything about this horse until I saw him in person – pretty f’n breathtaking! I’m anxious to see how they run.

Pulpit: 8% SWs from foals bitches. Not many stallions standing at stud can touch that # 4% GSWs from foals – top 5 (I don’t count Indygo Shiner with his weird #’s I’m finding). Of the top 5 stallions – at 4% - only Pulpit and A.P. Indy improve their mares.

Stroll: no one supported him after year 1 basically and so he left the country – but Claiborne was smart and brought him back after his 1^st crop produced huge success. He’s also 8% SWs from foals, average earnings per starter over 5 times his fee.

War Front: the Leading 2^nd Crop sire – currently with 2 major 3yos on the Kentucky Derby trail – Soldat and The Factor (my top 2 picks btw).

So when you’re out there handicapping races, shopping for yearlings, shopping for racehorses, or trying to pick a stallion for your mare – take note of Claiborne’s stallions. There is a reason they have been around for 100 plus years with grand successes.

Here you go world - my picks for Saturday May 1, 2010 

Churchill Downs - Kentucky Derby Card

What you get with my picks is obviously the horses I like best in each race - and take note that the one I list on top I typically bet $5 across, and include the rest in an trifecta and/or exacta box. I also would be doing a pick 4 where available on the card.

This below is for you to enjoy - and follow along if you care enough. I'll include comments where I feel the need.

Race 1
1. Rock Hard - suck
5. The Peloton - scratch

Race 2
I am just picking 1 horse here because it's a maiden race. Only picking this horse because of breeder - Liberation Farm  - GO ROB!
11. Raphael Alexandro -4th

Race 3
another maiden but it's turf - which I prefer (if you noticed Friday - my maidens' sucked it - so beware)
5. Lemonappeal - scratch
4. Circleboundbay - suck

Race 4
4. Bravo Whiskey (I picked this guy because he was once upon a time my early Derby pick - pedigree alone enticed me. by Smart Strike-Spanked (she's from the family of Affirmed). We'll see if he can get it together on CD's track - 4th

Race 5
2. Utterly Cool - scratch
1. Southern Exchange -suck
5. On My Dime - suck
4. Hymn book -3rd

Race 6 (throwing out the favorite at 7 1/2 furlongs)
5. Sister Resistor - suck
4. Decelerator - suck
1. Buckleupbuttercup - 1st

Race 7
5. Tizaqueena - suck
8. Not for Sale (Arg) - suck
2. Phola - 1st

Race 8
3. Informed Decision - 3rd
4. Dubai Majesty - suck
8. Rated Fiesty - suck

Race 9
13. Accredit (even if it's the Ramsey's) - suck
7. Warrior's Reward - 2nd
6. Hull - suck
12. Musket Man - 3rd

Race 10
1. Wise River - suck
7. Blues Street - suck
6. Battle of Hastings (G - 4th
8. Loup Breton (ire) - 3rd

Race 11 - Kentucky Derby
18. Backtalk !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! - 20th - thanks
2. Ice Box - 2nd
3. Noble's Promise - 5th
1. Lookin' at Lucky - 6th
20. Sidney's Candy - 18th
(thank goodness I teamed with my friend Beth who liked Super Saver since last year)

Race 12
2. Omniscient - 3rd
9. Thunder Jack - suck
10. Cape Hatchet - scratch

Race 13
4. Easy to Please Me
10. Galientos

Comments on all Derby contenders later today!

Here you go world - my picks for Friday April 30, 2010 

Churchill Downs - Kentucky Oaks Card

What you get with my picks is obviously the horses I like best in each race - and take note that the one I list on top I typically bet $5 across, and include the rest in an trifecta and/or exacta box. I also would be doing a pick 4 where available on the card.

This below is for you to enjoy - and follow along if you care enough. I'll include comments where I feel the need.

Race 1
7. Yonakee - 2nd
8. Diamond Song - 4th
2. Ravi's Song - 1st

Race 2
one of my recent rules has been to skip maiden races but for this weekend - I'll bother
5. Rendition - 5th
4. Karen Ann - who knows    
1. Rigamaro - 3rd
9. Shirley She Can - 4th

Race 3
another maiden but it's turf - which I prefer
5. Belgrave Square - 4th
4. Sudden Interest -suck
6. Kildare Cat - suck
7. Hybrid -suck

Race 4
Geez - I'm all longshots here
12. Bringingdown Babel - suck
7. Kantstopdancin - scratch
10. Funny Feeling -1st

Race 5
my favorite race on the card
6. War Tigress - 3rd
2. Susies Gal - suck 
5. Flaming Slew - suck
12. Absolutely Cindy - suck
no longer my favorite race.

Race 6
3. Zardana - suck
and I won't be betting this race because Zardana won't be high enough and Rachel Alexandra is in the race - so it's more of a watch type

Race 7
Babies
1. Saturday Dance - scratch
10. Twelve Pack Shelly - suck
2. Lou Brissie - 1st

Race 8
3 Chamberlain Bridge  - 2nd
6. Silver Timber - 1st
10. Central City - 3rd
hell yeah!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Exacta - Trifecta and across on 3 and 10. Happy boy

Race 9
3. Macho Again - suck
5. Prom Shoes - 4th
1. Chocolate Candy - suck

Race 10
1. Setsuko - 4th
6. Doubles Partner - 1st
5. Strike the Tiger - suck

Race 11 - Kentucky Oaks
2. Jody Slew!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
for the record - I took care of a couple of siblings back at Jonabell Farm a long time ago and loved her mother Trustbuster. She's gonna love the CD stretch at 1 1/8 miles and ignore that last race. She beat herself down gettin cast in her stall prior to the Fair Ground Oaks. - suck
6. Beautician - 4th
3. Quiet Temper - suck
5. Blind Luck (I don't really have faith but that's kicked my ass before) - 1st
10. Champagne d'Oro - suck

Race 12
1. Ash Zee - 3rd
8. Ready to Sing - suck

 

What is now becoming an annual event the Thursday before Derby - my long time friend (best uh man? at my wedding) Beth Kinnane and I got up way damn early this morning to head to Churchill Downs. Sat my alarm for 4:00 a.m. and rudely woke myself up at 3:45. Maybe I was excited - maybe I have sleep issues. One never knows (well - one knows but whatever - that's a chapter in the book). Got up - and prettied myself - which seems to be getting harder year after year (don't comment) without vomiting and botox. I skipped the latter for one year - and deciding that's a bad idea. Oh - I skipped the former as well before anyone gets all freaked out - half of what I say like that is just for shock value. Relax. So anyway (thanks Elliptical machine - work faster!).

We met in Versailles and headed to Louisville.

We got to Churchill, parked - visited our flirtatious friend at the gate "I remember you from last year." (it's the blue goatee). Made our way to our new favorite spot - a grassy area between one clocker stand and the new handicapped ramp/viewing stand. Less people - perfect scenery. Well - you can see the horses and that monstrosity of a grandstand that hides the once famed Twin Spires and now is covered with lights (I'm fine with the lights because it brings in people that may not go during the day - works for me - just the grandstand is way lacking as an architectural vision - more of an eyesore.

So then we waited. Because of the Derby/Oaks horses basically only going to the track after the renovation break - you see a bunch of horses that you don't know and no one cares. The excitement that was there last year is completely gone. It makes it easier for professional photographers and such so that's good but even the ones I know told me it has ruined the chance of the personal shots that you would normally go get after a workout/gallop. They lose the time to go to the barn and get the bath shot and such because they have another shot to get. So they lose a lot of those OTHER shots but get all the on track performance shots they could want.

We saw just about every horse and for the most part - my goal was to see my top 5 guys.

1. Backtalk - I don't care what you say - I can like who I want - it's worked for me in the past - so I stick to my plan. Really like him - and in person - he's large, stunning and impressive - nothing like his sire who has never really done much for me (Smarty Jones). He gets his look from his dam's side - a daughter of Affirmed.

2. Ice Box - he's not a big guy but he's well made - really makes sure you notice him. I'm very excited about him on Saturday.

3. Noble's Promise - he's already outrun his pedigree so don't say shit to me on that ok? Go deeper. I think he's got the class over many of these colts - and other than that bad break in the Arkansas Derby - pretty damn consistent record - which is always a sign for a board hitter to me. He's visually classy as well. Walked with an air of arrogance in front of me.

4. Lookin at Lucky - he's serious. Very nice looking colt - as you'd expect from a Smart Strike but he didn't fuck around. He looked like he was out there with a job to do, move out of the way - I'm a professional. I got a bath shot thanks to Beth with my camera.

5. Sidney's Candy - he's in my top 5 but seeing him - I felt nothing - he's not like the stunning Chocolate Candy from the same connections as last year - so I may be wavering to replace him.

The most impressive horse I saw today? Setsuko! Thanks California racing for dropping your Graded stakes to the minimum to hold the grade but you screwed horses that should be going - Setsuko runs 2nd in the G1 Santa Anita Derby - but isn't in the Kentucky Derby. That's just odd. But I blame California because everyone else is trying to man up - especially places like Sunland and such with actual purse money to run at. I'd never want to prep in CA for the Kentucky Derby for the sake of 2 things - fake surfaces and low purses. Not worth if you have a horse like this that is just starting to put it all together - and needs a real surface to run on.

I was not impressed with Awesome Act (looked like Wilko - yuck), Make Music for Me (looked very Turf Paradise claimer to me), Dublin (just looked ragged) and Devil May Care (if she didn't have chrome - you would never have noticed her - just bleck). Saw plenty others I didn't want to like Dean's Kitten and Stately Victor - but they look really good. So overall - of 20 horses I saw 18 - and didn't like 3. Not bad. Never saw Super Saver or Homeboykris. Btw - the horses above that I didn't like - other than Dublin - look fine just not my taste. So don't anyone think I am saying they are bad horses or aren't healthy - just not at all what I like in a horse.

Of the Oaks fillies - I was heavily unimpressed with all but Jody Slew - I have already picked her from months ago but she was the also the only one with a presence. Other than Blind Luck - but her presence wasn't impressive - just little feisty bitch looking. Don't know her - don't care but I did notice her. Maybe I noticed Amen Hallejulah (I don't care if that's not her spelling - I care so little that I don't feel like alt tabbing just to be sure).

We ran into several friends - saw some strippers, I mean exotic dancers (actually just some girls willing to do anything for a buck wandering around with a wizard - don't ask, cause I don't know and was just laughing at them) and then headed to the barn of Michelle Nihei after watching Prince Will I Am on the track. We got a barn tour from Michelle  of all the kids there. Always good to put a face with the name of all her the horses she trains.

We were on the look out for Diane Lane who was rumored to be there with Penny Chenery but never saw her. Oh well. We did a quick walk through on our way to meet Michelle and a friend of ours at Lynn's Paradise Cafe - if you haven't been - GO! Then the drive home for 2 not so young, not so early risers. We had a great time - but man we were wore out.

Churchill isn't at all what it was my first time there as a kid (before turf track) and it isn't what it was my first Derby (Silver Charm) but it is what it's always been - a little bit of heaven during Derby week. I've lost that whole little kid fan feeling years ago. The I can't believe I'm here feeling that I had when I first moved here and was prepping yearlings. I wondered where it went and I realized this year - I'm just a grown up. The time of the fantasy is past - and there is a ton of reality. I used to be sad about that - but now I'm actually excited - I realize I can/will still get there. Plus - how many never even get the experience I had there last year/this year in their entire life.

Later tonight I'll give you my Oaks Day card picks and tomorrow - Derby Day card picks.

you can always find me on Twitter and Facebook

For weeks now I've been trying to find a horse for the Derby. Some people don't pick their horse until they enter the race - I am not one of those people. Normally. - Well I'm not even a normal person.

I typically have a horse that I'm infatuated with at least by the end of the previous years big 2yo races. That's hardly the case anymore and I was wondering why I don't love anything like I used to. Part of that is because I work too closely sometimes and so I'm either jaded or unimpressed. But mostly it's because of 1 simple thing. Synthetic race tracks. Say what you want - about them - they've added confusion and disdain to our world.

Being from NM - I tend to be more in love with horses in CA than NY. But with the change of most tracks in California to synthetic I can't seem to give a shit about anything there - enough to have an early Derby pick. Living in KY - it's nice to be able to see some of the top 2yos at Keeneland in the fall - but since they changed to synthetic, I still enjoy seeing those 2yos but I found that they don't enter my mind for early Derby picks.

So here we are - April 14th and I've finally got 3 horses that I would maybe put on the list. Now - before people start making their comments or rolling their eyes - I'm not talking handicapping ok? I'm talking - picking a horse that I would like to win the Kentucky Derby. When we finally get entries I'll handicap every horse for the 1 1/4 miles and see what I end up with - always including my picks that I just would prefer to see win.

One thing that screws people up in handicapping is that they automatically throw out the long shots. I tend to look deeper at them. (not so with Stately Victor in the Blue Grass S. last weekend - he was an easy throw out - if you can't ever hit the board in your last 5 starts - I may not look deeper at you in a G1 race - hence the thought that the Blue Grass should no longer be a G1. not because I said so but because it's not par with what a G1 should be anymore). I like to throw out the favorite. 33% of the time the favorite wins in Thoroughbred racing - flip that bitch around and that's 67% they don't win. I like that percentage.

So who do I like? Well this is painful because I've tied my heart (and part of my head) to 3 horses - Noble's Promise (complete consistency until that crap beginning of the Arkansas Derby), Backtalk (love his dam and Broodmare sire. Don't care that much for Smarty Jones but he did win every race in his career by the Belmont - which he was 2nd in - so you cannot ignore that race record), and Setsuko (pedigree alone makes me lean towards this guy but that also aids in me thinking that on a natural surface he moves up dramatically)..

The problem with my boys above. Noble's Promise is noted as 50-50 to run in the Derby after the Arkansas Derby due to mostly the lung infection he picked up. People all the time like to tell me that no son of Cuvee can win the Derby but I don't listen to people like that. They are the same people that don't see deep enough. Noble's Promise is by Cuvee - a son of Carson City -- out of the Clever Trick mare The Devil's Trick. So when you see Carson City/Clever Trick you think 6 furlongs on dirt. Take note - he's already outdone that by winning at 1 1/16 miles. You can say what you want - but you need to look a little deeper if you're going to use the pedigree comments on any horse. This colt is from a family of great stamina and distance.
 
Backtalk is on the bubble to get in with Graded earnings being shot to hell by the likes of Stately Victor and Line of David (not to mention several other horses that don't belong - more on that later). Backtalk is my kind of horse. He's out of an Affirmed mare that I loved on the track Apasionata Sonata. I also have an affinity for his Pulpit half-sister Bsharpsonata. With all that - it makes me very excited to think of him in the Derby. For his mother's side. Can't say I want a Smarty Jones to win anything but I'll suck it up for this guy. Not the biggest fan of the trainer - just not sure he's up for the Big Days. Whatever the case - I like this colt a LOT!

Setsuko is the horse everyone wants in - which tells me that though he should be a price he might not be because he's on everyone's radar. A son of Pleasantly Perfect out of a Mr. Prospector mare that won a stakes in CA on the dirt? For me - he's a G1 winner on Dirt over a route of ground. Sure the mom's side is a family I know very well - prepped a full sister to his dam - named Dance Sequence. She went on to become a Graded Stakes winner in Europe - I'm sure because of me. I want this colt in most of all.

Among my other early thoughts are of course Lookin at Lucky and Ice Box. So far no one else turns me on at the moment. We'll see what I come up with as we draw closer.

I can't do much to get the horses I like in but hope and pray (use the Secret and Law of Attraction - shut up!) It's just a game but sometimes I wonder why certain horses are pointing for the race at all. Such as Dean's Kitten who can barely make a winning appearance on turf - and sure he won on polytrack at Turfway - which no longer matters in the case of Derby horses. But - who's to say that I wouldn't want my horse in if it won enough money - oh wait - my horse would be legitimate - not just hopeful.

Over the years my style of picking my horse(s) for the Kentucky Derby has altered course, reasoning and strategy. Now - everyone is different which leads to MANY ways to pick a horse for the big day.

I am not a fan of picking by name or color or number. That's how you play the lottery.

Once upon a time - my choices were because of color (loved the grays). But I'm no longer in kindergarten so I've moved on from that option. (that was for you Amy M.)

What can make me NOT like a horse for the Derby:

Owner/Jockey/Trainer's attitude. So your horse is doing really well and before the Derby you start making comments that they are unbeatable, going to win the Triple Crown ('cause that works out right?), etc. Quickly I discount that horses chances. It's a jinx to me. If you get too cocky - and voice that feeling - suddenly the gods of racing smite you. Be careful Bob Baffert - you're getting too close to this with Lookin' at Lucky comments. Danger danger. So far no one has jumped aboard this chuck wagon this year.

Horse name. So I won't pick a horse for it's name - but I most certainly will not pick a horse with a name I don't think is worthy of a Derby winner. The Derby is historic - to win it and be carried throughout history - you can't have a crap name like Tookin' Down (no offense to that horse), and you can't have an expectant name like Twin Spires (hello) or Triple Crown (ok he made it to the Derby in 73 with Secretariat- funny). What names I'm not a fan of for 2010? Top of the list is Eskenderaya. I know I know but it's the name of a type of Belly Dance - which is typically done by women - though I've seen some men do it (yeah let's leave that alone today). I don't like a feminine name on a colt going for the biggest named race in all our sport - that will also head for stud duty later. It is feminine and sounds feminine. Awesome name for a filly. Next on the list Lookin' at Lucky. It's not a horrid name like Lil E. Tee (I know right?) but I'm not head over heals about it. Luckily (pun) there are things about him that intrigue me enough to possibly overlook what would be a perfect gelding name.
 
I also don't like the unoriginal name. Where a lazy breeder combined the sire and dams name to come up with a cute mix. Sure that happens all the time but it does not impress me - unless the name easily stands on it's own. So far among the majority of everyone's top 20 - there are no serious offenders of this Billy rule.

Pedigree. There are just some stallions that I don't like - not gonna list them here - and it has nothing to do with that stupid shit people that know jack shit about any of this want to spread about certain stallions. Probably plenty out there that don't have the best soundness records. If you want to pay me enough (and I mean ENOUGH) to do a full scale research project - now's a good time to contact me - but otherwise - speculation can suck it. Tired of hearing people that don't know anything quote people that don't know anything either. This is something for the most part I shant (I said shant) make too many public comments about - sometimes my mouth runs away on Facebook but I'll try to contain it here. Why? Because my reasoning for not liking certain horses does not follow a professional manner. So I would offend plenty and I'm not in the game for keeping myself out of work. (I'm not stupid - just a big smart ass who's learning to keep my mouth shut). Take note - that you can figure out who I don't like by who I won't pick this year. And even then - I'm not consistent - the horse can always win me over.

Appearance. Sometimes - they just don't look good enough to me. Dull, or ugly. This has bitten me plenty as well because my Dad once told me - "a winner is a winner and a lot of ugly horses win races. They aren't as ugly in the winner's circle." So true. But still there is a particular look that I like. Sometimes my Quarter Horse background can skew my thoughts because I like a more muscular physique. Possibly why I've loved plenty of sprinters that lost the Derby. I'm learning.

Connections. There are people out there that rub me the wrong way or have personally pissed me off in the past. Now I am adult enough to not hold a grudge to the point of obsession (only a couple people in my life get to be that hated by me - and they probably aren't smart enough to know who they are - and they don't live in KY). Let's move on. There are people that present themselves in a manner that I don't feel is respectful of the horse or the sport - and sometimes even humanity. So instantly I can't put their horse on my list. This hurts me most of all because I've watched a horse cross many a finish line - 1st. Without my money or love on it's back. My problem. Now - my biggest reason for my attitude here is that our industry has a hard enough time keeping a positive image because only negative publicity makes it to the mainstream - that is the fault of every one that markets any part of racing. So if you - yourself present an image of negativity, carelessness, callousness, what have you. Then YOU aid in downgrading our sport. If you're not a likable person - and want to be yourself at all times - I get that - I'm always myself. Nothing to hide and nothing to gain by hiding. But - if you're not me (likable by most standards - I'm  just guessing - or hoping) then get someone else to speak, for you that is not instantly going to put off everyone. You might lose some personal limelight but that's YOUR fault. Think of the bigger picture. Not everything is about you.
 
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What can make me LIKE a horse for the Derby

Pedigree. As much as there are horses I don't care for - there are 2 that rule my mind. If the sire line or broodmare sire line (?) contain the great and powerful Affirmed or *Caro (IRE) - then we're on. Affirmed always outweighs *Caro (IRE) here. Contenders with him anywhere in their pedigree get the instant vote (like Harlan's Holiday runners). The best ever is a mix of both my boys - however - that leans toward more turf miler than dirt classic. Basically very few have had either. Off the top of my head Quintana (by Affirmed, lost), Winning Colors (by Caro, 1st), Tejano Run (by Tejano, by Caro, 2nd), Talkin Man (by With Approval, by Caro, lost), Harlan's Holiday (by Harlan out of Affirmed mare, lost), and so on. There are others - but no point of going on and on about my illness. A horse from certain families also applies here - like last year with Chocolate Candy - family of Affirmed. How could I lose? Oh I did.

Connections. If a horse was sold by a client, related to a horse of a friend or client, connected to a horse I once worked with - or is a horse I worked with - then there is a big chance that horse goes on the list. Sometimes sentimentality rules the world of the Derby - not for everyone because we are all touched differently by these athletes. I ALWAYS bet a horse that is sentimental - because nothing would be worse than not winning - while winning. See Alphabet Soup in the Breeders' Cup Classic at Woodbine. I LOVE THAT HORSE. I didn't bet because I thought Cigar would kick everyone's ass - I lost and lost. Use your head and your heart.

Past Performances. Many times I have talked myself into a horse - that otherwise is overlooked. So many people consider only the last prep before the Derby. Some people base their pick on an overwhelming performance during the horses career. I have to look at it all. Nowadays it's wonderful because of the option of race replays online. This helped me with Mine That Bird last year Sure - sentimental pick as well - but when my friend Ed DeRosa said "he got bad rides in NM," I watched those races and instantly agreed - then I thought that if you remove those races - the record is pretty good - and he is a champion. Back on his game - he could hit the board. BAM!

At this point in this year - I have some horses I am growing a fondness for but don't my favorite yet.

Today I have narrowed it all down to 12 horses that I'm considering in order of preference. There are reasons - but why don't I save that for more blog entries?

Noble's Promise - because of his Rebel S. performance and connections.
Setsuko - because of his pedigree
Backtalk - because of his pedigree
Conveyance - because of his pedigree and record
Interactif - I'm still not sure why yet - but something to like.
Lookin at Lucky - because of his Rebel S. performance
Alphie's Bet - because of his pedigree
The Program - because of his pedigree
Drosselmeyer - because he beat my boy Prince Will I Am so I'm holding on for a bit.
Tempted to Tapit - because Tapit is slowly reaching into Affirmed/Caro territory with me.
Super Saver - he's on because of his 2yo career - he needs to improve from the Tampa Bay Derby greatly to keep me on him.