Here you go world - my picks for Saturday May 1, 2010 

Churchill Downs - Kentucky Derby Card

What you get with my picks is obviously the horses I like best in each race - and take note that the one I list on top I typically bet $5 across, and include the rest in an trifecta and/or exacta box. I also would be doing a pick 4 where available on the card.

This below is for you to enjoy - and follow along if you care enough. I'll include comments where I feel the need.

Race 1
1. Rock Hard - suck
5. The Peloton - scratch

Race 2
I am just picking 1 horse here because it's a maiden race. Only picking this horse because of breeder - Liberation Farm  - GO ROB!
11. Raphael Alexandro -4th

Race 3
another maiden but it's turf - which I prefer (if you noticed Friday - my maidens' sucked it - so beware)
5. Lemonappeal - scratch
4. Circleboundbay - suck

Race 4
4. Bravo Whiskey (I picked this guy because he was once upon a time my early Derby pick - pedigree alone enticed me. by Smart Strike-Spanked (she's from the family of Affirmed). We'll see if he can get it together on CD's track - 4th

Race 5
2. Utterly Cool - scratch
1. Southern Exchange -suck
5. On My Dime - suck
4. Hymn book -3rd

Race 6 (throwing out the favorite at 7 1/2 furlongs)
5. Sister Resistor - suck
4. Decelerator - suck
1. Buckleupbuttercup - 1st

Race 7
5. Tizaqueena - suck
8. Not for Sale (Arg) - suck
2. Phola - 1st

Race 8
3. Informed Decision - 3rd
4. Dubai Majesty - suck
8. Rated Fiesty - suck

Race 9
13. Accredit (even if it's the Ramsey's) - suck
7. Warrior's Reward - 2nd
6. Hull - suck
12. Musket Man - 3rd

Race 10
1. Wise River - suck
7. Blues Street - suck
6. Battle of Hastings (G - 4th
8. Loup Breton (ire) - 3rd

Race 11 - Kentucky Derby
18. Backtalk !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! - 20th - thanks
2. Ice Box - 2nd
3. Noble's Promise - 5th
1. Lookin' at Lucky - 6th
20. Sidney's Candy - 18th
(thank goodness I teamed with my friend Beth who liked Super Saver since last year)

Race 12
2. Omniscient - 3rd
9. Thunder Jack - suck
10. Cape Hatchet - scratch

Race 13
4. Easy to Please Me
10. Galientos

Comments on all Derby contenders later today!

        

Here you go world - my picks for Friday April 30, 2010 

Churchill Downs - Kentucky Oaks Card

What you get with my picks is obviously the horses I like best in each race - and take note that the one I list on top I typically bet $5 across, and include the rest in an trifecta and/or exacta box. I also would be doing a pick 4 where available on the card.

This below is for you to enjoy - and follow along if you care enough. I'll include comments where I feel the need.

Race 1
7. Yonakee - 2nd
8. Diamond Song - 4th
2. Ravi's Song - 1st

Race 2
one of my recent rules has been to skip maiden races but for this weekend - I'll bother
5. Rendition - 5th
4. Karen Ann - who knows    
1. Rigamaro - 3rd
9. Shirley She Can - 4th

Race 3
another maiden but it's turf - which I prefer
5. Belgrave Square - 4th
4. Sudden Interest -suck
6. Kildare Cat - suck
7. Hybrid -suck

Race 4
Geez - I'm all longshots here
12. Bringingdown Babel - suck
7. Kantstopdancin - scratch
10. Funny Feeling -1st

Race 5
my favorite race on the card
6. War Tigress - 3rd
2. Susies Gal - suck 
5. Flaming Slew - suck
12. Absolutely Cindy - suck
no longer my favorite race.

Race 6
3. Zardana - suck
and I won't be betting this race because Zardana won't be high enough and Rachel Alexandra is in the race - so it's more of a watch type

Race 7
Babies
1. Saturday Dance - scratch
10. Twelve Pack Shelly - suck
2. Lou Brissie - 1st

Race 8
3 Chamberlain Bridge  - 2nd
6. Silver Timber - 1st
10. Central City - 3rd
hell yeah!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Exacta - Trifecta and across on 3 and 10. Happy boy

Race 9
3. Macho Again - suck
5. Prom Shoes - 4th
1. Chocolate Candy - suck

Race 10
1. Setsuko - 4th
6. Doubles Partner - 1st
5. Strike the Tiger - suck

Race 11 - Kentucky Oaks
2. Jody Slew!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
for the record - I took care of a couple of siblings back at Jonabell Farm a long time ago and loved her mother Trustbuster. She's gonna love the CD stretch at 1 1/8 miles and ignore that last race. She beat herself down gettin cast in her stall prior to the Fair Ground Oaks. - suck
6. Beautician - 4th
3. Quiet Temper - suck
5. Blind Luck (I don't really have faith but that's kicked my ass before) - 1st
10. Champagne d'Oro - suck

Race 12
1. Ash Zee - 3rd
8. Ready to Sing - suck

        

 

What is now becoming an annual event the Thursday before Derby - my long time friend (best uh man? at my wedding) Beth Kinnane and I got up way damn early this morning to head to Churchill Downs. Sat my alarm for 4:00 a.m. and rudely woke myself up at 3:45. Maybe I was excited - maybe I have sleep issues. One never knows (well - one knows but whatever - that's a chapter in the book). Got up - and prettied myself - which seems to be getting harder year after year (don't comment) without vomiting and botox. I skipped the latter for one year - and deciding that's a bad idea. Oh - I skipped the former as well before anyone gets all freaked out - half of what I say like that is just for shock value. Relax. So anyway (thanks Elliptical machine - work faster!).

We met in Versailles and headed to Louisville.

We got to Churchill, parked - visited our flirtatious friend at the gate "I remember you from last year." (it's the blue goatee). Made our way to our new favorite spot - a grassy area between one clocker stand and the new handicapped ramp/viewing stand. Less people - perfect scenery. Well - you can see the horses and that monstrosity of a grandstand that hides the once famed Twin Spires and now is covered with lights (I'm fine with the lights because it brings in people that may not go during the day - works for me - just the grandstand is way lacking as an architectural vision - more of an eyesore.

So then we waited. Because of the Derby/Oaks horses basically only going to the track after the renovation break - you see a bunch of horses that you don't know and no one cares. The excitement that was there last year is completely gone. It makes it easier for professional photographers and such so that's good but even the ones I know told me it has ruined the chance of the personal shots that you would normally go get after a workout/gallop. They lose the time to go to the barn and get the bath shot and such because they have another shot to get. So they lose a lot of those OTHER shots but get all the on track performance shots they could want.

We saw just about every horse and for the most part - my goal was to see my top 5 guys.

1. Backtalk - I don't care what you say - I can like who I want - it's worked for me in the past - so I stick to my plan. Really like him - and in person - he's large, stunning and impressive - nothing like his sire who has never really done much for me (Smarty Jones). He gets his look from his dam's side - a daughter of Affirmed.

2. Ice Box - he's not a big guy but he's well made - really makes sure you notice him. I'm very excited about him on Saturday.

3. Noble's Promise - he's already outrun his pedigree so don't say shit to me on that ok? Go deeper. I think he's got the class over many of these colts - and other than that bad break in the Arkansas Derby - pretty damn consistent record - which is always a sign for a board hitter to me. He's visually classy as well. Walked with an air of arrogance in front of me.

4. Lookin at Lucky - he's serious. Very nice looking colt - as you'd expect from a Smart Strike but he didn't fuck around. He looked like he was out there with a job to do, move out of the way - I'm a professional. I got a bath shot thanks to Beth with my camera.

5. Sidney's Candy - he's in my top 5 but seeing him - I felt nothing - he's not like the stunning Chocolate Candy from the same connections as last year - so I may be wavering to replace him.

The most impressive horse I saw today? Setsuko! Thanks California racing for dropping your Graded stakes to the minimum to hold the grade but you screwed horses that should be going - Setsuko runs 2nd in the G1 Santa Anita Derby - but isn't in the Kentucky Derby. That's just odd. But I blame California because everyone else is trying to man up - especially places like Sunland and such with actual purse money to run at. I'd never want to prep in CA for the Kentucky Derby for the sake of 2 things - fake surfaces and low purses. Not worth if you have a horse like this that is just starting to put it all together - and needs a real surface to run on.

I was not impressed with Awesome Act (looked like Wilko - yuck), Make Music for Me (looked very Turf Paradise claimer to me), Dublin (just looked ragged) and Devil May Care (if she didn't have chrome - you would never have noticed her - just bleck). Saw plenty others I didn't want to like Dean's Kitten and Stately Victor - but they look really good. So overall - of 20 horses I saw 18 - and didn't like 3. Not bad. Never saw Super Saver or Homeboykris. Btw - the horses above that I didn't like - other than Dublin - look fine just not my taste. So don't anyone think I am saying they are bad horses or aren't healthy - just not at all what I like in a horse.

Of the Oaks fillies - I was heavily unimpressed with all but Jody Slew - I have already picked her from months ago but she was the also the only one with a presence. Other than Blind Luck - but her presence wasn't impressive - just little feisty bitch looking. Don't know her - don't care but I did notice her. Maybe I noticed Amen Hallejulah (I don't care if that's not her spelling - I care so little that I don't feel like alt tabbing just to be sure).

We ran into several friends - saw some strippers, I mean exotic dancers (actually just some girls willing to do anything for a buck wandering around with a wizard - don't ask, cause I don't know and was just laughing at them) and then headed to the barn of Michelle Nihei after watching Prince Will I Am on the track. We got a barn tour from Michelle  of all the kids there. Always good to put a face with the name of all her the horses she trains.

We were on the look out for Diane Lane who was rumored to be there with Penny Chenery but never saw her. Oh well. We did a quick walk through on our way to meet Michelle and a friend of ours at Lynn's Paradise Cafe - if you haven't been - GO! Then the drive home for 2 not so young, not so early risers. We had a great time - but man we were wore out.

Churchill isn't at all what it was my first time there as a kid (before turf track) and it isn't what it was my first Derby (Silver Charm) but it is what it's always been - a little bit of heaven during Derby week. I've lost that whole little kid fan feeling years ago. The I can't believe I'm here feeling that I had when I first moved here and was prepping yearlings. I wondered where it went and I realized this year - I'm just a grown up. The time of the fantasy is past - and there is a ton of reality. I used to be sad about that - but now I'm actually excited - I realize I can/will still get there. Plus - how many never even get the experience I had there last year/this year in their entire life.

Later tonight I'll give you my Oaks Day card picks and tomorrow - Derby Day card picks.

you can always find me on Twitter and Facebook

        

For weeks now I've been trying to find a horse for the Derby. Some people don't pick their horse until they enter the race - I am not one of those people. Normally. - Well I'm not even a normal person.

I typically have a horse that I'm infatuated with at least by the end of the previous years big 2yo races. That's hardly the case anymore and I was wondering why I don't love anything like I used to. Part of that is because I work too closely sometimes and so I'm either jaded or unimpressed. But mostly it's because of 1 simple thing. Synthetic race tracks. Say what you want - about them - they've added confusion and disdain to our world.

Being from NM - I tend to be more in love with horses in CA than NY. But with the change of most tracks in California to synthetic I can't seem to give a shit about anything there - enough to have an early Derby pick. Living in KY - it's nice to be able to see some of the top 2yos at Keeneland in the fall - but since they changed to synthetic, I still enjoy seeing those 2yos but I found that they don't enter my mind for early Derby picks.

So here we are - April 14th and I've finally got 3 horses that I would maybe put on the list. Now - before people start making their comments or rolling their eyes - I'm not talking handicapping ok? I'm talking - picking a horse that I would like to win the Kentucky Derby. When we finally get entries I'll handicap every horse for the 1 1/4 miles and see what I end up with - always including my picks that I just would prefer to see win.

One thing that screws people up in handicapping is that they automatically throw out the long shots. I tend to look deeper at them. (not so with Stately Victor in the Blue Grass S. last weekend - he was an easy throw out - if you can't ever hit the board in your last 5 starts - I may not look deeper at you in a G1 race - hence the thought that the Blue Grass should no longer be a G1. not because I said so but because it's not par with what a G1 should be anymore). I like to throw out the favorite. 33% of the time the favorite wins in Thoroughbred racing - flip that bitch around and that's 67% they don't win. I like that percentage.

So who do I like? Well this is painful because I've tied my heart (and part of my head) to 3 horses - Noble's Promise (complete consistency until that crap beginning of the Arkansas Derby), Backtalk (love his dam and Broodmare sire. Don't care that much for Smarty Jones but he did win every race in his career by the Belmont - which he was 2nd in - so you cannot ignore that race record), and Setsuko (pedigree alone makes me lean towards this guy but that also aids in me thinking that on a natural surface he moves up dramatically)..

The problem with my boys above. Noble's Promise is noted as 50-50 to run in the Derby after the Arkansas Derby due to mostly the lung infection he picked up. People all the time like to tell me that no son of Cuvee can win the Derby but I don't listen to people like that. They are the same people that don't see deep enough. Noble's Promise is by Cuvee - a son of Carson City -- out of the Clever Trick mare The Devil's Trick. So when you see Carson City/Clever Trick you think 6 furlongs on dirt. Take note - he's already outdone that by winning at 1 1/16 miles. You can say what you want - but you need to look a little deeper if you're going to use the pedigree comments on any horse. This colt is from a family of great stamina and distance.
 
Backtalk is on the bubble to get in with Graded earnings being shot to hell by the likes of Stately Victor and Line of David (not to mention several other horses that don't belong - more on that later). Backtalk is my kind of horse. He's out of an Affirmed mare that I loved on the track Apasionata Sonata. I also have an affinity for his Pulpit half-sister Bsharpsonata. With all that - it makes me very excited to think of him in the Derby. For his mother's side. Can't say I want a Smarty Jones to win anything but I'll suck it up for this guy. Not the biggest fan of the trainer - just not sure he's up for the Big Days. Whatever the case - I like this colt a LOT!

Setsuko is the horse everyone wants in - which tells me that though he should be a price he might not be because he's on everyone's radar. A son of Pleasantly Perfect out of a Mr. Prospector mare that won a stakes in CA on the dirt? For me - he's a G1 winner on Dirt over a route of ground. Sure the mom's side is a family I know very well - prepped a full sister to his dam - named Dance Sequence. She went on to become a Graded Stakes winner in Europe - I'm sure because of me. I want this colt in most of all.

Among my other early thoughts are of course Lookin at Lucky and Ice Box. So far no one else turns me on at the moment. We'll see what I come up with as we draw closer.

I can't do much to get the horses I like in but hope and pray (use the Secret and Law of Attraction - shut up!) It's just a game but sometimes I wonder why certain horses are pointing for the race at all. Such as Dean's Kitten who can barely make a winning appearance on turf - and sure he won on polytrack at Turfway - which no longer matters in the case of Derby horses. But - who's to say that I wouldn't want my horse in if it won enough money - oh wait - my horse would be legitimate - not just hopeful.

        

Over the years my style of picking my horse(s) for the Kentucky Derby has altered course, reasoning and strategy. Now - everyone is different which leads to MANY ways to pick a horse for the big day.

I am not a fan of picking by name or color or number. That's how you play the lottery.

Once upon a time - my choices were because of color (loved the grays). But I'm no longer in kindergarten so I've moved on from that option. (that was for you Amy M.)

What can make me NOT like a horse for the Derby:

Owner/Jockey/Trainer's attitude. So your horse is doing really well and before the Derby you start making comments that they are unbeatable, going to win the Triple Crown ('cause that works out right?), etc. Quickly I discount that horses chances. It's a jinx to me. If you get too cocky - and voice that feeling - suddenly the gods of racing smite you. Be careful Bob Baffert - you're getting too close to this with Lookin' at Lucky comments. Danger danger. So far no one has jumped aboard this chuck wagon this year.

Horse name. So I won't pick a horse for it's name - but I most certainly will not pick a horse with a name I don't think is worthy of a Derby winner. The Derby is historic - to win it and be carried throughout history - you can't have a crap name like Tookin' Down (no offense to that horse), and you can't have an expectant name like Twin Spires (hello) or Triple Crown (ok he made it to the Derby in 73 with Secretariat- funny). What names I'm not a fan of for 2010? Top of the list is Eskenderaya. I know I know but it's the name of a type of Belly Dance - which is typically done by women - though I've seen some men do it (yeah let's leave that alone today). I don't like a feminine name on a colt going for the biggest named race in all our sport - that will also head for stud duty later. It is feminine and sounds feminine. Awesome name for a filly. Next on the list Lookin' at Lucky. It's not a horrid name like Lil E. Tee (I know right?) but I'm not head over heals about it. Luckily (pun) there are things about him that intrigue me enough to possibly overlook what would be a perfect gelding name.
 
I also don't like the unoriginal name. Where a lazy breeder combined the sire and dams name to come up with a cute mix. Sure that happens all the time but it does not impress me - unless the name easily stands on it's own. So far among the majority of everyone's top 20 - there are no serious offenders of this Billy rule.

Pedigree. There are just some stallions that I don't like - not gonna list them here - and it has nothing to do with that stupid shit people that know jack shit about any of this want to spread about certain stallions. Probably plenty out there that don't have the best soundness records. If you want to pay me enough (and I mean ENOUGH) to do a full scale research project - now's a good time to contact me - but otherwise - speculation can suck it. Tired of hearing people that don't know anything quote people that don't know anything either. This is something for the most part I shant (I said shant) make too many public comments about - sometimes my mouth runs away on Facebook but I'll try to contain it here. Why? Because my reasoning for not liking certain horses does not follow a professional manner. So I would offend plenty and I'm not in the game for keeping myself out of work. (I'm not stupid - just a big smart ass who's learning to keep my mouth shut). Take note - that you can figure out who I don't like by who I won't pick this year. And even then - I'm not consistent - the horse can always win me over.

Appearance. Sometimes - they just don't look good enough to me. Dull, or ugly. This has bitten me plenty as well because my Dad once told me - "a winner is a winner and a lot of ugly horses win races. They aren't as ugly in the winner's circle." So true. But still there is a particular look that I like. Sometimes my Quarter Horse background can skew my thoughts because I like a more muscular physique. Possibly why I've loved plenty of sprinters that lost the Derby. I'm learning.

Connections. There are people out there that rub me the wrong way or have personally pissed me off in the past. Now I am adult enough to not hold a grudge to the point of obsession (only a couple people in my life get to be that hated by me - and they probably aren't smart enough to know who they are - and they don't live in KY). Let's move on. There are people that present themselves in a manner that I don't feel is respectful of the horse or the sport - and sometimes even humanity. So instantly I can't put their horse on my list. This hurts me most of all because I've watched a horse cross many a finish line - 1st. Without my money or love on it's back. My problem. Now - my biggest reason for my attitude here is that our industry has a hard enough time keeping a positive image because only negative publicity makes it to the mainstream - that is the fault of every one that markets any part of racing. So if you - yourself present an image of negativity, carelessness, callousness, what have you. Then YOU aid in downgrading our sport. If you're not a likable person - and want to be yourself at all times - I get that - I'm always myself. Nothing to hide and nothing to gain by hiding. But - if you're not me (likable by most standards - I'm  just guessing - or hoping) then get someone else to speak, for you that is not instantly going to put off everyone. You might lose some personal limelight but that's YOUR fault. Think of the bigger picture. Not everything is about you.
 
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What can make me LIKE a horse for the Derby

Pedigree. As much as there are horses I don't care for - there are 2 that rule my mind. If the sire line or broodmare sire line (?) contain the great and powerful Affirmed or *Caro (IRE) - then we're on. Affirmed always outweighs *Caro (IRE) here. Contenders with him anywhere in their pedigree get the instant vote (like Harlan's Holiday runners). The best ever is a mix of both my boys - however - that leans toward more turf miler than dirt classic. Basically very few have had either. Off the top of my head Quintana (by Affirmed, lost), Winning Colors (by Caro, 1st), Tejano Run (by Tejano, by Caro, 2nd), Talkin Man (by With Approval, by Caro, lost), Harlan's Holiday (by Harlan out of Affirmed mare, lost), and so on. There are others - but no point of going on and on about my illness. A horse from certain families also applies here - like last year with Chocolate Candy - family of Affirmed. How could I lose? Oh I did.

Connections. If a horse was sold by a client, related to a horse of a friend or client, connected to a horse I once worked with - or is a horse I worked with - then there is a big chance that horse goes on the list. Sometimes sentimentality rules the world of the Derby - not for everyone because we are all touched differently by these athletes. I ALWAYS bet a horse that is sentimental - because nothing would be worse than not winning - while winning. See Alphabet Soup in the Breeders' Cup Classic at Woodbine. I LOVE THAT HORSE. I didn't bet because I thought Cigar would kick everyone's ass - I lost and lost. Use your head and your heart.

Past Performances. Many times I have talked myself into a horse - that otherwise is overlooked. So many people consider only the last prep before the Derby. Some people base their pick on an overwhelming performance during the horses career. I have to look at it all. Nowadays it's wonderful because of the option of race replays online. This helped me with Mine That Bird last year Sure - sentimental pick as well - but when my friend Ed DeRosa said "he got bad rides in NM," I watched those races and instantly agreed - then I thought that if you remove those races - the record is pretty good - and he is a champion. Back on his game - he could hit the board. BAM!

At this point in this year - I have some horses I am growing a fondness for but don't my favorite yet.

Today I have narrowed it all down to 12 horses that I'm considering in order of preference. There are reasons - but why don't I save that for more blog entries?

Noble's Promise - because of his Rebel S. performance and connections.
Setsuko - because of his pedigree
Backtalk - because of his pedigree
Conveyance - because of his pedigree and record
Interactif - I'm still not sure why yet - but something to like.
Lookin at Lucky - because of his Rebel S. performance
Alphie's Bet - because of his pedigree
The Program - because of his pedigree
Drosselmeyer - because he beat my boy Prince Will I Am so I'm holding on for a bit.
Tempted to Tapit - because Tapit is slowly reaching into Affirmed/Caro territory with me.
Super Saver - he's on because of his 2yo career - he needs to improve from the Tampa Bay Derby greatly to keep me on him.

        

As I close in on the end of the past I've realized this trip down memory lane has really helped me start getting excited for the 2010 Kentucky Derby. In fact I may even be excited about the eventual match up of Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta. Rehashing the past has given me a refreshed passion for the future. So much so that today I played on http://zipseatthetrack.blogspot.com/ and his weekly Who Am I? Trivia game. Usually I do have to hunt around for the answer - but today - there was no research - I had the correct answer in 2 minutes. Why am I telling you this? Because it's a sign to me that the juices are flowing and maybe I really am loving the race horse - again.

2000 - this Derby has me a little more than disoriented. Why I went to the races that day I don't know. I had been through several surgeries - don't ask - and I was in no condition to stand all day in the heat near the paddock, near the drunks (jealous much?), near the almost excitement. By the time the giant gap of life before the Derby hit - I was beyond miserable. My partner asked if I wanted to head to his mom's "we can make it before the race easy." He asked this at risk of getting a shocked and hateful "are you fuckin' kidding me? it's the Derby!" But instead he got "please." We got to his mom's when the horses were on the track for the post parade. Perfect. Fusaichi Pegasus won and I didn't. Wheelaway (5th), Curule (7th), Captain Steve (8th). Billy loses.

2001 - This was one of the best years. Stepped out of the paddock to a table with my friend Beth - and West Point's Terry Finley, his wife, and their kids. Can  I tell you that this was a ROUGH weekend. I went out Thursday night - getting home in time to get a little sleep, get up and pick up my girls. Drank ALL DAY on Oaks day (btw - I do not and cannot hang like this anymore), drove home, went out again, same sleep pattern, put on suit #2, Drank all day. Btw, the Finley's were more adult acting than Beth and I who were bottomless funnels. It was Derby time. We got pulled out to the original 'real' Millionaire's Row. Seated in front of me? Courtney Cox and David Arquette. To my right? Crystal Gayle (the first album I ever bought yo!) To my left? Kidd Rock and Pamela Anderson. NOW! She at this time was a big deal to me (breasts smaller than Crystal Gayle) but she is no longer even worthy of further commentary. Beth and I were smack dab in the middle of celebrity - but when they broke from the gate - it was about horses - the real celebs of the day. I had on my Monarchos pin - and we were screaming and jumping like 6yo's at a Disney parade. The rest? stood there like they were watching Golf, Bowling, NASCAR. Dullards. Crystal Gayle smiled at me - and that proved to me that SHE got it. Billy wins - PETA sucks. That blonde btw - had yet to start her chicken fight she was there to party. Don't let anyone tell you differently. Because they're lying. That night I went to the U2 concert in Lexington and then went out. Monday I started at Hartwell Farm - helping them prep yearlings in the a.m.

2002 - This year I watched from home I believe (didn't I? anyone? anyone? Bueller? So having worked at Jonabell Farm, of course I was a big fan of Essence 'of Dubai (uh that's where he's from yo, out of Epitome!) however, he managed 9th place. Billy sad. I was once obsessed with an Affirmed mare named Christmas in Aiken - lo and behold she ends up as the dam of Harlan's Holiday - who I still love as a sire. He finished 7th. Billy sad. The winner? War Emblem - Billy sick. Billy loses.

2003 - thanks Kelly, thanks Liane - first year IN the paddock. To a lot of hangers on types and such this isn't a big deal but with my business and my jobs I'm not on the side that is trying to get somewhere on someone else's coattails. Take note. I'm not being assy - I'm just not ass kissy. I'm me - all me. So my picks were Buddy Gil and Brancusi. The latter I had prepped at Hartwell Farm and he nearly drowned when he didn't bother to swim after lap 1 in the pool. He got his leg over the inside lead taking it from the other handler (Sandra? Robbie? can't remember). I drug him to the ramp and he and I collapsed together. One of the most frightening experiences in my life - yet I saw in him that he was no longer the ass he tried to play in the paddock and in the stall - he was thankful. Buddy Gil finished 6th and Brancusi finished last. Awesome! just like the pool. A funny aside (pun) on Funny Cide. As he came into the paddock my friend Liane and I were looking at him like - whatever - he's run his race. Looked like a crack whore that just wandered naked into church. Sweatin', gnashing, crazy eyed, wore out and tense. Surprise! He wins. Billy loses.

2004 - the highlight of this year? Standing 2 feet from Latoya Jackson in the paddock. I was so well behaved - I didn't ask her "hey girl where's Janet? I have to show her the tattoo of her with a derby hat on my shoulder and her eye just up and to the right of my junk!" Security! I smiled and she smiled and that was that. Other than taking her picture. My pics? Tapit (9th - but hey he got it done in the breeding shed - so awesome), Friends Lake (15th) and Minister Eric (16th). Smarty Jones won. Billy loses.

2005 - I'd lost every race on the under card and was thinking - shit I hate this day. I hadn't cashed ANYTHING. But I had my bets down for the Derby. This was the last year I did the special room with Kelly and Liane. I was a big fan of Spanish Chestnut (because I am a big fan of his sire Horse Chestnut (SAf)) but he only led for 6 furlongs and faded to 16th. I also like Sort it Out - he couldn't beat Spanish Chestnut (17th). But I also had GIACOMO so there! I love Holy Bull - didn't on the track but began to totally respect him as a sire when I was at Jonabell. A sire that's done what he has should be way more respected but this industry just doesn't get it sometimes. Anyway - my day was about to end with $0 and it turned around to my $5 across on Giacomo becoming $420.50. Billy wins!!!!!!!

2006 - I've begun to typically stick with 3 horses most generally because of my obsession with trifectas. Especially in a 20 horse race full of chance. I had Bob and John (17th - thanks), Flashy Bull (14th) and of course, Barbaro (winner!). Before you get too carried away - I'm not one of those people - that came onto the scene and loved him because he got hurt in the Preakness, because he later died. I'm not sick nor pathetic. I am a fan of horse racing. I like it for all the good it is to me. From what I can tell about the so called Friends of Barbaro - they are the same type of people that had to take the day off in high school because someone they saw in the hallways died in a car wreck. I'm not knocking respect and grief - I'm knocking fake ass bullshit. Some people say any fan of racing is a good thing. At this point - I will disagree because fans that don't actually respect, believe in or understand our sport - are worthless to me. They don't go to the races to have a good time - they go in hopes to see something tragic so they can cry and say they loved that horse. They are as bad for the sport as PETA and HSUS, Gill and Paragallo. Billy wins.

2007 - I'm on fire! My actual favorite was Hard Spun (2nd) but I also liked Sam P. (9th) and Street Sense (winner!) I was in awe of the top 3 finishers (Curlin was 3rd) because Street Sense was outstanding, Hard Spun tried so very hard and Curlin shocked me to get up for 3rd. I just thought the task was a lot to ask of him - and he proved me wrong. Billy wins - 3 years in a row!

2008 - and the streak ends. Big Brown ruined it. Denis of Cork was my boy - and he finished 3rd. Pyro finished 8th. Court Vision was 13th. Bummed but at least I got a 3rd. This would be the first year of Lovingtheracehorse.com after all the bullshit that surrounded poor Eight Belles. Go back in time and read my very first entry. Learn something. I also had my first trip to the Preakness with my buddy Phil. Desmond went with us but he shopped and had a bawl without me in the way. Phil and I had a great time. (thanks) But since this is a Derby blog (and I don't think I'll be doing my picks for the rest of the Triple Crown races - in this format - UNLESS I get 100 comments asking me to do so - there's your challenge - now we'll see if you care, ha). Billy loses.

2009 - if you don't know by now - this year capped my 5th winner of this decade! My friend Pete made the comment "Billy always finds a way to have the impossible long shot." or something like that - guess I shouldn't use quotes but whatever - I'm the boss of this shit. My horses: Chocolate Candy (5th), Friesan Fire (18th) and MINE THAT BIRD (winner!) My exact words from last year's Derby preview.
Mine That Bird: Now you know I have a special connection to this guy and that's important to me. I also wouldn't bet him if he had NO chance. I've heard from several "experts" that think he shouldn't be here. There are always plenty of those. Ignore those NM races because he got bad rides! BAD. He has Calvin Borel who knows how to ride a closer/stalker at Churchill Downs. A son of Birdstone out of a Smart Strike mare? Love it - will run all day - will run on anything and is my tasty longshot - for so many reasons. By the way - he's the only champion in this field.
Had I been smart enough to respect Pioneer ofthe Nile - I'd be wealthier. Had my friend Ed remembered he talked me into Mine that Bird. We'd have quit our jobs. Hindsight is rough on a longshot.  Billy wins!

The 00's

Picks	1st	2nd	3rd	win %
26	5	1	1	19%

        

I don't usually bother reporting News because so many other blogs only do that - but this is kind of important. Here is the NTRA press release for Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta's 2010 debuts - live coverage.

SEASONAL DEBUTS OF RACHEL ALEXANDRA, ZENYATTA TO BE SHOWN LIVE ON NTRA.COM

Other Key Races to be Webcast Live as Part of NTRA Interactive Initiative

The National Thoroughbred Racing Association (NTRA) announced today that the organization’s Website, NTRA.COM, will offer free, live video streaming this Saturday of the seasonal debuts of both 2009 Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra and the undefeated Champion Zenyatta. Rachel Alexandra will make her 2010 bow in the New Orleans Ladies Stakes from Fair Grounds, while Zenyatta will compete later that day in the Grade I Santa Margarita Invitational Handicap at Santa Anita.  The New Orleans Ladies and the Santa Margarita are expected to serve as preps for Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta, respectively, prior to their scheduled showdown in the April 9 Apple Blossom Invitational at Oaklawn Park. Post time for the New Orleans Ladies is slated for 6:15 p.m. (ET), and the Santa Margarita is set for 6:40 p.m. (ET). Both races also will be televised live on HRTV.

Saturday’s Webcast will begin at 6 p.m. (ET) and is the first of a series of races leading to the Triple Crown and Breeders’ Cup World Championships that will be Webcast live on NTRA.COM. The series, called NTRA Live!”, will be hosted by ESPN analyst and NFL Network host Randy Moss. NTRA Live! will feature interviews with handicappers and on-track analysts, interactive chats with viewers, pre-and post-race analysis, handicapping selections, easy access to free past performance data and advance deposit wagering platforms, as well as other original and unique programming components. The programs will be produced and directed by Tim Turrell, who has produced numerous telecasts on horse racing and other sports for ESPN, The Golf Channel and others.

“There is obviously immense interest in Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta, and we can think of no better way to launch NTRA Live! than through a worldwide Webcast of their 2010 debuts,” said Keith Chamblin, senior vice president of the NTRA. “Our goal is to deliver high-quality broadcasts of these important races to a worldwide audience. We also want to take advantage of this Web-based platform by utilizing content elements that wouldn’t necessarily be available to us via traditional programming.”

Following Saturday’s Webcast, NTRA Live will continue on March 20 with the Webcast of the Florida Derby from Gulfstream Park. Other races on the schedule, which is expected to include 15-20 Webcasts during the year, include the March 28 Sunland Derby from Sunland Park Racetrack and Casino and the April 17 Coolmore Lexington Stakes from Keeneland.

        

We roll into the 90's as I'm preparing an escape from the Land of Enchantment (Entrapment if you're a native New Mexican). During this same time my first horse to race was also nearing her first start. An Exciting decade of new beginnings. However not so exciting for me in the early stages of the Derby Decade.

1990 - I was in Las Cruces, NM visiting my friend Christine Freeman (she's a day older than me). I watched the race on her 2 inch tv or maybe it was a 13 inch. Even on that small screen the moment with Carl Nafzger and Frances Genter as Unbridled was heading to the wire was epic. However, my picks Thirty Six Red, Real Cash and Dr. Bobby A. are still running I believe.  9th, 11th and 12th. Billy loses. But at least my horse would win in her 3rd start later that year.

1991 - you must know by now that I could not stand Strike the Gold. COULD NOT. Don't care - don't cry to me about it. Yuck. With that my choices were 5th - Fly so Free and 6th - Quintana (by Affirmed). The latter made a great move and I thought my man was gonna get in there. But alas the horse I liked the least in that crop wins. Billy loses. My horse won an allowance that year for me. So not all was lost.

1992 - closing in! as usual I didn't care about what comes from Arkansas. Why? Cause I'm a bitch and I have to pick places I don't believe match up to the level I like. Arkansas - that's you. Lil E. Tee won after a trip through Oaklawn and a win at Turfway (Latonia, whatever it might have been called at that time.) My picks? Casual Lies (2nd), Technology (10th). 2nd can almost be more hard to deal with than off the board. Really liked Casual Lies. Billy loses.

1993 - most likely one of my least favorite years in Derby history. Sea Hero won - great story - but not my pick. No - I had Bull inthe Heather (a rockin 11th - all bull no heather), El Bakan (18th) and Tossofthecoin (last - 19th). Awesome. I was getting ready to end my exciting life in retail in Farmington, NM to hit the big time of the Thoroughbred industry - with my hot white Mercury Topaz and $200. Billy loses.

1994 - another year that I wasn't in love with.  Go for Gin wins (I have a nickname for him that I can't share). My horse of choice? 2nd place finisher Strodes Creek. I really thought I had that one nailed down. Billy loses.

1995 - oh look - another 2nd! Six years into the decade and no wins. My Dad had Thunder Gulch - I had Tejano Run (2nd) that's a $480 exacta that we didn't bet. I also had Talkin Man (love! 2nd at the head of the stretch - and then 12th), and the great Serena's Song (16th - one of the stars of the 1st Breeders' Cup I had ever attended - with my Dad. So awesome). yet - Billy loses.

1996 - So I cashed a ticket on the winner Grindstone - but to be fair - I did not pick him - I was head over heals about his entry mate - Editor's Note (6th). I also had 3rd place finisher Prince of Thieves. I'd now been in KY for closing in on 4 years - and had yet to see the Derby live - but guess what the next year would bring? not a winner. Billy loses

1997 - Silver Charm took the roses - without accolades from me. I mean - I wasn't mad at him just didn't pick him. You would think I'd have picked Free House (and I did but not to win - he was 3rd by the way). To me that horse was flat out star power, hot flashy gorgeous - like all the guys I like (well). I saw Pulpit for the 1st time in the paddock at Keeneland for the Blue Grass S. - and was almost immediately over the moon. I don't usually fall for the bandwagon horse - but this one was breathtaking. He finished 4th. Billy loses - but also wins because I watched this race from the backside at Churchill Downs. My first Derby! This would be the year someone yelled to me while walking on the track to the grandstand "Billy Idol" - I just curled my lip an waved.

1998 - all year I had cheered on Real Quiet because he had made a start (a losing one - and I say that only because too many people say he won) in New Mexico at 2. For whatever reason - I was off him when the Derby hit. Once again on the backside at Churchill, my horse was Old Trieste (10th). I could have killed myself after the finish. But lucky for you - I did not. Billy loses.

1999 - a year that will live deep within my soul. No - not a winner for me but I spent the weeks leading up to the Derby doing interviews for newspapers, tv, and most importantly ESPN Magazine. All because of my colorful tattoo on my back - complete with the Twin Spires, Hot Air balloons, 5 horses and Janet Jackson in a derby hat. I watched the Derby from the paddock this year with my friend Beth and cheered on my pick that was in print in ESPN magazine. Menifee. He was 2nd. At least I didn't seem stupid to the world. Billy loses.

The 90's came and went as my least favorite decade for the Derby. Can't win them all right? Take note - not a winner since Winning Colors. When would this drought end? Wait for the '00s coming in a few days.

Who did you win with? Lose with?

The 90's

Picks	1st	2nd	3rd	win %
20	0	4	2	0

        

(if you missed part 1 here it is http://lovingtheracehorse.com/2010/03/04/pick-an-apple--pick-a-pair-no-i-didnt-mean-pear--a-series.aspx)

My first Derby winner (that I picked - not owned, still waiting on that) was Gato Del Sol. That was in 1982 (are you old enough to ride this ride?) I may be a huge Affirmed worshiper but I was like 8 years old (if I even want to admit my age) when he won and I really can't say I remember that year, Spectacular Bid or Genuine Risk. All 3 being horses which I appreciate their dominance and power. I actually started paying attention in 1981 when 2 little New Mexico horses hit the scene.

1981 - Bold Ego and Pass the Tab both had roots in New Mexico (my birth state yo). I only picked them because they were stakes winners that I'd heard of and my Dad told me about them. There has to be a beginning right? Bold Ego won 3 of NM's top 2yo races: New Mexico Futurity, Riley Allison Futurity, Rio Grande Kindergarten Futurity before heading to Oaklawn Park as a 3-year-old and taking the Rebel S. and Arkansas Derby-G1. He had the lead after a mile before fading to 10th - later he was 2nd in the Preakness S.-G1 (the race that has eluded all New Mexicans - ha). Pass the Tab had won the Santa Fe Futurity (no longer exists along with Santa Fe Downs) at 2 and was on the board in several Florida Derby preps. He was 3rd after a mile but faded to 6th. Billy loses.

1982 - As I mentioned above - I picked Gato Del Sol, but I also liked the filly Cupecoy's Joy. I had to watch this race later on news replays as me and my Dad were at McGee Park. This was the local racetrack in Bloomfield, NM that was at the time - only calcutta wagering (don't ask - it's basically illegal) and later became San Juan Downs (where I had my first win as an owner/breeder) and is now known as SunRay Park. We stood atop the scary wooden bleachers (I always thought I'd fall to my death) and the small mostly Quarter Horse, Appaloosa crowd listened to the call over the P.A. system (so you really heard nothing but noise). I couldn't understand a word but as the announcer called Gato Del Sol my Dad said "shit! I shoulda bet your horse you picked this morning." And so began an addiction to finding a longshot. Luckily many years later in 2000 I got to be associated with Gato's homecoming at Stone Farm when I worked for their ad agency The Bell Group. A special moment. Billy wins.

1983 - you have to remember (or maybe know for the first time) that during this time there were only 3 channels on tv and occasionally we got a derby prep on Wide World of Sports. But you always had to wade through a bunch of sports a boy like me didn't care about to get 10 minutes of horse racing. Wasting most of your day (not like now where I waste the entire day watching every race possible on TVG and HRTV - wait - not a waste) trying to find a horse you might like. My choices this year were Slew o' Gold and Marfa (because of that Blue Grass S.-G1 savage moment - hot!). Slew o' Gold sadly finished 4th and Marfa finished 5th. Another "full circle" moment - I got to Billy loses.

1984 - I was a Swale (winner) fan but my year was crushed with Time for a Change and Dr. Carter didn't make it to the Derby. I was suckered in by the very impressive record setting Arkansas Derby win of the filly Althea and her classy stablemate Life's Magic (take note - HUGE Eugene V. Klein fan here, I mean how could I not be? One of his first G1 winners was Miss Huntington). Althea lead for 6 furlongs and faded to 19th, Life's Magic finished 8th and stayed in my heart forever. Billy loses.

1985 - oh suck. Wasn't a Spend a Buck fan. LOVED Tank's Prospect (yay Preakness win!) but he was 7th in the Derby. A 3 year streak of losses! not even on the board. Billy loses.

1986- more suck for me. Mogambo and Groovy (yeah I love a sprinter). Mogambo was my horse because I loved his Champagne win at 2. I should have stopped there - he finished 10th. Groovy led for 6 furlongs and finished last. I did get to work with his sister Cookie as a yearling my first year in Kentucky. The first yearling I prepped. I felt so honored. Billy loses.

1987 - I was head long into my love of Spendthrift Farm (back then they really made me feel welcome - senior in High School - by answering my questions, sending me info, etc.) so I had On the Line (10th), Candi's Gold (8th) and Avies Copy (3rd), all by Spendthrift stallions. However, I couldn't let go of Alysheba. I told my Dad after the 1986 Breeders' Cup Juvenile when he ran 3rd that he would win the Derby. When Derby time came around I told him my picks - all 4. He asked "can't you just pick a horse you like and stick to it?" I said "not just one, I don't want to hurt anyone's feelings." You would thought I was 8 but I was 17 and so began a slight level of crazy (like now when I think the cast of Will & Grace are my friends). Billy wins.

1988 - hell yeah. Probably the best year ever for me. I picked one horse, Winning Colors early in the year and everyone said I was crazy. She was the epitome of the perfect Derby horse for me. Her sire was *Caro (IRE) (my 2nd favorite stallion of all time and stood at Spendthrift), she was out of a daughter of Bold Hour (stood at Spendthrift), she was owned by Eugene Klein. She was big and beautiful, gray and breathtaking. I was living in Lexington going to school at the Kentucky Horse Park. My Dad had flown out to drive back to NM with me as the program I was in had ended. We cheered in my studio apartment for our horses - me the filly, Dad - Forty Niner. What a great moment for racing, for the Triple Crown and for a father and son. I know a lot of people were fans - but she's tattooed with Flawlessly and Affirmed on my right arm - that's fan appreciation. I was honored to take her for a walk at Keeneland one day at the November sale. A moment I still get goosebumps over. Billy wins.

1989 - close but not close enough. My Dad LOVED Sunday Silence (winner)- I was like - whatever (funny when you look back). I loved Easy Goer (2nd - dammit) and Houston (there almost til the end - when it matters). In the lead for a mile, 3rd entering the stretch - 8th. Thanks. Billy loses.

The 80's

Picks	1st	2nd	3rd	win %
17	3	1	1	18%

        

It's March 4th. I woke up this a.m. with a migraine - on the couch because the snoring in the bedroom was unbearable. I'm a light sleeper when it comes to noise as it is and if I get woke up by sound - I'm awake and usually not impressed. I moved to the couch with my French Bulldog Beau to get some peace and quiet.

I started this blog a week ago at the suggestion of my friend Margaret Layton and just haven't really found the story in it. Until I woke up this morning.

It sounds like Spring outside - and with the blinds closed it almost looked like it could be. The sun was shining (not my favorite for a migraine) and I could hear a lone bird chirping. I remember when that sound used to piss me off - and now somehow it makes me smile, even with a migraine.

Of course - I didn't start rewriting this entry until the migraine was nearly passed. I can't even think of focusing on such with all that pain - especially when it would please me most to cut out my eye that was throbbing. What allowed me to have this moment was that I can't sleep with that pain - and I must find somewhere else to concentrate my mind - besides the spinning, nausea and pain. I took the drugs and put the aroma therapy pillow that I heated up in the microwave - almost to scalding, branding pain - on my face and began breathing in and out. During that process the Kentucky Derby started entering my head.

As you may or may not know I've been struggling to find the passion off and on that once consumed my entire being when it comes to horse racing. Part of the issue for me is that after being actually in the world as more than a fan, as an employee, a breeder, an owner, a businessman (wow - I've once again called myself a man - I still feel like a boy), a supporter, etc. - I know more than before and I can't just go by blind love and excitement.

Growing up picking a Derby horse to honor and cherish up to (and hopefully beyond) the first Saturday in May was fire like. I daydreamed in class about it. Sure that may be the reason I graduated with a 2.7 GPA - but don't think I'm average (or ignorant) - I'm realizing now that I was bored. By now - if you EVER thought of me as average - you must be one hellacious whack job.

I used to pick my Derby horses mostly because of their sire. I spent countless hours each week following certain stallions progeny so that I could cheer them on down the road. I would make notes of where sons (and daughters) of Affirmed, *Caro (IRE), (my favorites) were running - the races, the tracks and the possible next race. As they would impress (or not) I would remove them from my list. Always having a favorite no matter what the result.

I could not pick a horse with a bad name. A name that would best be suited for a $5k claimer or gelding. Which is why horses like Demons Begone, Lil E Tee, would never make my list (besides not being in love with their sires - for no particular reason). One of those I was right - the other - clearly wrong. But to me - to pick a Derby horse is to pick a Triple Crown prospect. Would I want a horridly named horse to go down in history along the classy names like Affirmed, Secretariat, Citation? No - shant.

As I got older (haven't grown up) - and moved to Kentucky to one day fulfill a dream - I started changing my strategy - ALWAYS having Affirmed and sons of *Caro (IRE) in the forefront of the list but also leaning towards horses I worked with as yearlings at Three Chimneys Farm and Jonabell Farm. As well as offspring of stallions at those farms. The list began to grow when I began working for The Bell Group - dropping Three Chimneys stallions and adding those of farms we did advertising for - like Claiborne Farm, Pin Oak Stud, and others.

Gone were the days of picking for pure fanatic passion. One way or another my picks became by association. By the time I started my business I was picking more because of what the end result could do for a client (because it really doesn't do shit for me). When Derby day came and went - I felt less than enthralled most of the time because I had picked a horse that most often didn't measure up - and picked because of someone else's need - not my excitement. Now - don't get me wrong - it is more than exciting to be this closely involved in the world of Thoroughbred racing and actually have a connection somehow to a Derby starter.

How many kids from New Mexico can say they know the owner or worked with a horse that ran in the Kentucky Derby? Probably more than you think - but overall - not many.

After a while I've come to realize that part of my lack of passion is my own fault. Not that of being to attached. I want everyone I worked for/with to win at some point. You know in a field of 20 even THAT is a hard task to complete. After Mine That Bird came along for me last year - the first time I've been emotional over a Derby win since Winning Colors - I've been put back in my own drivers seat. Sure that was cheering on a connection - but not for the same reasons as cheering on Monarchos (sire stood at Pin Oak Stud) and Giacomo (sire stood at Jonabell).

So here it is March 4th, 2010 and I don't have a Derby horse to cheer on as yet. So this series is my way of finding that horse. I will look back at who I've picked since Bold Ego and Pass the Tab in 1981 to 2009 Mine That Bird, Chocolate Candy, Mr Hot Stuff and Friesan Fire - and why I chose them. The series will wrap up with my 2010 probables - mixed with handicapping and passion.

Feel free to chime in along the way with who you like and why - and take note - I'm not going to approve your comment if it's something childish like "he was pretty" or "because she was a filly" - I want more than that - and I will NO LONGER bother with approving comments that attack the racing industry.